They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Other 'Best Feature' Races
By J. Don Birnam
February 6, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
With that, the main guilds have spoken, and other than BAFTA and the Writers Guild, the Oscar race is pretty much set. So here are our updated power rankings for the main categories, which we will update once more before the big night.
Today, we handicap the three other “best feature film” races - the foreign films, the documentaries, and the animated features. The coverage of the obscure technical races from last week is here. You can also read my coverage of these three races last year here. I went 3/3, which is not very hard to do typically in these fields. Sometimes there are surprises, but it’s been a while - Big Hero Six taking the Oscar from the How to Train Your Dragon sequel comes to mind. The races are slightly unnerving this year but not incredibly so.
Let me know if you have differing thoughts on these three races: Twitter and Instagram.
Politics Part I: The Animated Feature Films.
The animated branch did what is has been doing for years now - rewarding commercially successful, big tent movies, but also more independent or eclectic ones from smaller fare. This year the lauded five were Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, The Red Turtle, and My Life as a Zucchini.
This is arguably a tough-ish race simply because critics and fans have been so warm to Kubo from the beginning. And the fact that it received a nomination in the Visual Effects category shows that it is strong in the Academy. Indeed, as I mentioned last year, no movie that has received a nomination outside of this category has ever lost the Animated Feature Oscar. That is about to change, of course, as Moana is also up for Best Original Song, so both can’t win.
Will Zootopia, up only for this award, pull it off? Likely. It won the night at the Annie animators’ awards over the weekend - though Kubo did take editing, and was also nominated by the Costume Designers Guild. Zootopia also won the ACE editing award, and the Globe. It is the likely winner, but it is not without a doubt.
The other films are definitely along for the ride only. Zucchini is a Swiss movie that made the final nine in the foreign language race only to miss out a nomination in that category, and it is a sweet tale told in claymation about an orphan boy and the adventures he encounters with other children in an orphanage.
The Red Turtle is also a solid entry, a Studio Ghibli co-produced silent film about a man stranded in a deserted island and a mysterious Turtle that prevents him from escaping. The story is sort of strange and mythical, but the animation is beautiful and the emotion genuine. Still, few people will see this film, and nothing this esoteric has ever won there.
The same can be said for Disney’s Moana which, while good, did not achieve anywhere near the level of popularity that past winner Frozen did. The arc of the story, of a brave female leader taking her people to find prosperity in the outer world, perhaps seemed timely in 2016 and would have been so had a different outcome occurred in November, but it is notably obsolete in a sense.
So why do I think Zootopia still has it? Well, it’s the most accessible, and it’s also heartwarming. And there is also a bit of politics, to be fair. The movie is about differences between races and people, about accepting each other, about not letting fear of that which is different drive you apart and let it set policy. Is it somewhat clichéd? Sure, many animated tales tell this tale. But in a year where the awards race has gotten quite political, and where Zootopia arguably benefits from being the family-friendliest of the bunch (and therefore most likely to be seen by voters), I’d be surprised if the artsier Kubo pulled it off.
Will win: Zootopia
Could win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Politics Part II: The Documentary Feature Films.
If you think there are politics in the minuscule corner of the animated race, then wait until you get a hold of the documentaries. This year, the branch made history by nominating four black filmmakers in the list for the first time. The nominees are O.J. Made in America, The 13th, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, and The Fire at Sea.
Three of those documentaries deal with the tense subject of race in America, and a fourth (The Fire at Sea) deals with a topic that has become very relevant in light of the events of the last few weeks: refugees and humanitarian efforts to rescue them. Only one, Life, Animated, is one of those feel-good documentaries that have tended, annoyingly, to win here in recent years, from Amy to Searching for Sugarman. And while the story of the child who became autistic early in life and found communication through the beauty of Disney is sincere and heartfelt, it is not the most compelling of the five, and likely has no chance.
The Fire at Sea, an Italian film, is stylish in its execution, and features a subdued and quiet narrative of people in the southern part of Sicily helping people coming from North Africa in search of better shores. The humanitarian efforts are impressive and the story is heartbreaking, but the excessively quiet tone of it makes it a long shot.
Then we have the three documentaries that feature race relations, at least two of them, The 13th and I Am Not Your Negro, arguably sparked by what has been happening with police brutality, and both featuring clips and appearances by last year’s presidential candidates. The 13th would have probably won in another year, as Ava DuVerney’s signature no-holds barred style and pristine editing make a compelling and infuriating case that mass incarceration is the 21st Century’s version of Jim Crow, which is in turn the 20th Century’s version of slavery. Still, the film rambles off topic at times, trying to bite off more than just that narrower topic, and will likely finish third.
I am Not Your Negro, meanwhile, is a beautifully wrought film based on the writings of James Baldwin, and it explores the civil rights movement through essentially an autobiographical account. This film is perhaps the most incisive in its analysis of the tension between races, the history of racism, and the different approaches to combating it. For those reasons, it is likely to be also not as accessible as the others.
No, the unquestionable winner this year - winner also of the DGA, the PGA, and the ACE Eddie - is O.J.: Made in America. The nearly eight-hour long ESPN film is impressive in its scope and ambition alone, and it pulls off what it clearly sets out to do, which is to narrate a compelling story of one of our most famous fallen heroes. The story is no doubt gripping, and it is told by documentarian Ezra Edelman in that intense style. Along the way, you discover bits and pieces about the tale that even the most devoted O.J. fan maybe did not know, and you get a tour de force account of the tension between police and the black community in Los Angeles.
In the end, O.J. is the story of a quintessential American tragedy, where perhaps most of it would not have happened had O.J. been white - though the film does not go as deep as one may like, the point is still there on the surface.
Will win: O.J.: Made in America
Could win: N/A
Politics Part III: The Best Foreign Language Film Race
To complete the trifecta of politicization, look no further than the Best Foreign Language Film race. This year the nominees are Germany’s Toni Erdmann, Iran’s The Salesman, Denmark’s Land of Mine, Sweden’s A Man Called Ove, and Australia’s Tanna.
Let’s start with the ones that will not win. Tanna is a fascinating portrayal of aboriginal tribes in that continent, a tale that reminds one of past nominee The Embrace of the Serpent. These films are essentially documentaries that open a window into the culture of the country that is setting forth the submission, but, like Colombia’s entry, Australia’s is a bit too niche to have much resonance.
The same is likely true of Sweden’s entry, which is a story about an old man and how he discovers newfound meaning in life at a later stage, after much crankiness. It is also up for the Best Makeup award but, in a year where resonance seems to be a requirement in all races except Best Picture, this one does not seem to have the chops.
And then there is the entry that seems to be reserved for a World War II/Holocaust/Nazi-themed film. This year it is Denmark’s Land of Mine, about German POWs forced to clean the beaches of Denmark of landmines. A sad, harrowing tale, but the Academy seems to be moving away from this theme unless and until there is not much else to reward.
So it boils down to Germany vs. Iran. Toni Erdmann, a timely, modern tale about sexism and anxieties in the workplace, seemed to be heading for a sure victory. The film tells the story of a middle-aged woman as she struggles to find her place in the office and in life, all while her eccentric father comes for a visit and stays to give her additional lessons about happiness. The story is mostly a comedy, a well-told escape into the life of one person with so much more to offer. It was the undisputed front-runner, that is until a certain Executive Order was signed.
With the presidential directive that made it harder for people from certain countries, including Iran, to visit the United States, Iranian filmmaker Asgar Fahardi made it known that he would not be attending the ceremony. Could the Academy try to send a message about its view on the directive by awarding Fahardi again? You may recall he won a few years back for the family drama A Separation, so it is not out of the question.
It would be a shame, at least from the perspective of quality, for that to be the outcome. I’ve never really been partial to his work and I found The Salesman, about a man seeking to avenge his honor after his wife is sexually assaulted, to be more style than substance. Sure, there are subtle and important messages in there assailing censorship in the Iranian regime, and it is no doubt refreshing to see artists from that country express their collective anxieties about the shortcomings of their practices. But I found Toni Erdmann much more relevant at least to my own experience, and indeed one of my favorite of the year.
I’m still going to say Germany triumphs, but there is certainly a chance for a spoiler here. Politically, I can hardly blame the Academy, even though it is probably not the best movie. If they are going to just stay quiet while the world revolves around them, they will vote themselves into irrelevance.
Will win: Toni Erdmann
Could win: The Salesman