They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Mid-year State of the 2017-2018 Oscars
By J. Don Birnam
August 24, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
So where are we so far? First, my usual pep talk. The beginning of the Oscars race really is like the start of an amazing new relationship. There is excitement, the promise of more to come, surprises, thrills, emotion. We know that by the end of it I always want the title of the column to become reality. But before we get to that point, it’s really peachy keen. Plus, let’s face it, no matter what side of the political spectrum you are on, don’t you want a break from all the wall-to-wall coverage?
So let’s get to where we are but be sure to add me on Twitter: @jdonbirnam and Instagram: @awards_predix for daily coverage, particularly of the film festivals.
The Pre-Fall Lineups Usually Hold a Contender Or Two
There is no use denying what has become obvious in the past years. At least a movie or two released before the fall film festivals has been getting a Best Picture nominations in recent years. At the very least we have The Grand Budapest Hotel, Mad Max, and Hell or High Water, each within the last three years. So while in the last couple I have shown off just how bad my predicting abilities are - last year, for example, stating that Hell or High Water “may get an acting or writing nod” when it in fact made it to Best Picture - this year I am going to resist the urge to dismiss the pre-September fare and look deeply in there for something good to give.
Let’s look at the potential films one by one.
Dunkirk
If any movie that has hit theaters so far is going to make a move in Best Picture, it has to be Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. The film really has it all, from respectable box office to critical and audience acclaim, to World War II heroism, to Mark Rylance. It is a well-acted, solid piece that entertains and enthralls. Nominations for Best Sound seem in the bag, but others could follow, including (if they’re feeling creative) the mostly silent script, the taut directing, and the overall product. Rylance himself could return to the list of nominated supporting actors. Warner Bros. has announced it will engage in an aggressive campaign for the film, and I for one would love to see it nominated.
Detroit
Kathryn Bigelow once won an Oscar for directing The Hurt Locker, a movie that went on to win it all, way back in 2009 now. She returned with Zero Dark Thirty which did make the Best Picture list, but Bigelow herself was shut out after some ridiculous controversy about how the film endorsed waterboarding engulfed her Oscar chances.
I expect the director is going to have to fight back harder to get back into the winner’s circle. Although I thought Detroit was exceptional, and so did most critics, audiences completely ignored the tough-to-stomach race relations drama. And because it’s Kathryn Bigelow (too successful a woman, if you ask me!), controversy also followed, with individuals questioning whether, because of her race, she is entitled to make a movie about race.
Too bad. Another one bites the dust in the brutal awards combat. I would be surprised if anything from this film got anywhere near the Oscars, but look to see if it shows up in critics’ list for clues as to what may be in store.
Get Out
Meanwhile, it was that “other” film about race that had people talking, what with its 100% RT rating for the longest while, way back in February. Get Out, the scary story about a black guy who visits his girlfriend’s white suburban parents and discovers a disturbing secret, was well-liked by critics and audiences, and could provide some surprises. A screenplay nomination seems in the bag. If you ask me, the movie is too much Stepford Wives, too much Body Snatchers, and I never really got what the big fuss was about. But you’re not asking me for my opinion on the film, but about its Oscar chances.
I’m going no for Best Picture for the moment, but Jordan Peele should be okay to get a nod in this category.
Wonder Woman & Logan
Speaking of Warner Bros., they made a big splash during the summer when they announced that alongside Dunkirk they’d be pushing their golden egg, the surprising and epically successful origin story Wonder Woman, in the awards race, along with its director, Patty Jenkins. I applaud Warner’s commitment - they are pursuing the gender angle on this one - but I am not sure it will result in much. While most involved with the project have been universally praised, the cold harsh truth of the matter is that the snob club that are critics and voting bodies are just not ready to invite these pictures to the party.
Call me antiquated if you will, but I can’t help but agree that movies that depend on this sort of fantastic excitement for its appeal rather than something somewhere more profound or insightful, have one place, but it is not on the winner’s podium. Time may prove us all wrong, or the awards may just become irrelevant. It is great to see a female director break through in this way in this male-dominated movie genre. But I just don’t see it as an awards contender in anything other than minor tech categories. If Deadpool didn’t make it....
And if Gal Godot can’t bring her movie to the game, I doubt Hugh Jackman will. While many tried to play the Logan game, that one is dead in the water.
Acting Races & Screenplay Races
That’s about it in the Best Picture race if you ask me. I tried to reach for something and did my best, but the truth is that there isn’t that much to pick from. Even Taylor Sheridan’s follow-up to Hell or High Water, the magnificent Wind River, hasn’t found that loud critical voice.
Movies by other famed directors (think Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled), or others with lofty names attached to them (think Charlize Theron’s Atomic Blonde) served somewhat niche categories but ultimately will not amount to much beyond potential costumes or cinematography nods.
In the acting races, there is a lot of promise in the future and we will cover that. For now, only Salma Hayek has made some noise really with the Trump-era film Beatriz at Dinner. The other roles that are being floated around seem too small to me.
For screenplay, other than Get Out, it seems like the indie comedy The Big Sick is headed for an original nod. Again, call me out of touch or not understanding what the big deal is about (the movie seems a remake of dozens of others), but there you have it.
Tech Races
The obvious contender here, in addition to what I’ve mentioned above, is the live action version of Beauty and the Beast, which dazzled with production values, costumes, as well as special effects. The latter category could also see the return of the Planet of the Apes franchise, with “War” a potential entrant in Best Visual Effects. And of course all comic book/superhero movies are always a force to reckon with in that category, though none seems to have made a big impact so far.
And when the biggest animated movie so far this year is maybe The Boss Baby, maybe Despicable Me 3, look for this branch to ruffle some feathers with more silent, international, or artsy films, or all of the above, in this category, unless Disney’s Coco has something to say about it.
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That’s it for now! It is truly a joy to be back prognosticating Oscars with you guys. Next week I will offer a preview of the Venice/Telluride/TIFF Festival lineup before heading to the Rockies myself to cover what they have to offer.