They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Fall Film Festival Preview
By J. Don Birnam
August 30, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
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Venice: A True Beginning to Oscar Season
I began this year’s Oscar coverage last week by noting that, at most, maybe Dunkirk has a Best Picture spot - and with a special preview at TIFF announced now to celebrate the 50th anniversary of IMAX, you know that Warner is making a strong push.
But in just a few days (hours, really) you can bet your horses that the 74th Venice Film Festival will have had something to say about that. Just look at the lineups that last year alone came out of the Lido here. La La Land opened the festival (that “musical with Emma Stone” I called it!) and they also showed Arrival, both world premieres. Clearly, in addition to impeccable taste in European and other national cinema, the curators of this festival know quality and know quality that attracts awards votes. Don’t forget that they’ve had movies like Birdman and Spotlight open their fests, and that the aforementioned musical came within probably a handful of misplaced votes of winning Best Picture, too.
So what’s in store there for this year? Their showcase/opener will be Alexander Payne’s movie Downsizing, which includes a star-studded cast from Matt Damon to Kristen Wiig and past-Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, and asks you to imagine what would happen if scientists discover a way to shrink humans to five inches tall.
Other big names that are expected to make big splashes in Italy are Guillermo del Toro with The Shape of Water, a return to the crowd for him after ten or so years of Pan’s Labyrinth? Darren Aronofksy (who always goes there), with his Jennifer Lawrence thriller mother!, and George Clooney in his directorial debut, Suburbicon. The Frances McDormand drama Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri will also be in Venice. You really have to expect that one of those is going to win Best Picture, if past history is any guidance, and at the very least you’re looking at a list of nominees.
Telluride: Heavy Weight Oscar Contenders
While Venice has had the eventual Best Picture premiere in several times of its last few years, Telluride is no slouch. Last year, I had the privilege of watching the world premiere of Moonlight there, a movie which of course went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
But it’s not just its premieres that make Telluride stand out—they really have their finger on the Academy’s taste. Last year, they also showed La La Land and Arrival, both in North American premieres, and brought back Manchester by the Sea from Sundance. Essentially, then, they showed case all the winners in all major Oscar categories, except for Fences, which gave Viola Davis her Oscar and did not premiere until December.
But we do not know quite yet what we will be seeing in the Colorado mountains, although we can venture some guesses based on how TIFF has continued to label its showings with particular titles (“Canadian Premiere”) (“International Premiere”) in a way that offers strong clues as to what will happen in Colorado - much to the chagrin of the Telluride planners no doubt.
This year, the best guesses suggest that the Emma Stone/Steve Carell comedy Battle of the Sexes will be there, a movie that could have some timeliness to today. It also seems likely that we will see Darkest Hour, the Churchill biopic starting Gary Oldman, though this kind of non-fictional film has never seemed that much up of Telluride’s alley. And, no doubt they will showcase some of the Venice movies - the answer as to which one will tell us much indeed about which film has which chances.
You may even see some Sundance recurrences, including the gay love story Call Me by Your Name or the stunning racial tension movie Mudbound.
Toronto: Importance Decreasing?
Whereas Venice and Telluride have established themselves as the extraordinary one-two punch that kick starts the award season, Toronto has sort of stumbled, through arguably nothing more than the vicissitudes of the calendar, into an uncomfortable third place.
Years after showcasing two indie movies with no distributors, one calledSlumdog Millionaire, the other The Hurt Locker, Toronto has struggled to find that sort of TIFF-to-Oscar riches story. Even the last two winners of its once-vaunted People’s Choice Award - Room and La La Land - have eventually faltered in the final analysis.
What gives? Toronto is stuck not just because it does not get World Premieres, thanks mostly to Telluride/Venice, but because of how it chooses to deal with that. It will only showcase true premieres in its Gala Section, leaving a lot of their headline grabbing pictures as lesser movies that do not really seem worthy of awards contention but pack the red carpets. So, The Magnificent Seven and The Judge have, in years prior, opened TIFF, but neither movie got any awards chatter to speak of. This year, the tennis drama Borg/McEnroe has that perhaps-now dubious distinction, and no one is expecting much of it.
Oh, of course TIFF will play all of the Telluride/Venice films, and then some as it will also bring back major Sundance and Cannes titles that are looking to reenter the conversation, including Call Me By…, Mudbound, and Palm D’Or winner The Square, from the Swedish director of Force Majeure.
TIFF is also an embarrassment of riches for contemporary world cinema, and past Best Foreign Language Oscar nominees and winners are usually seen there, as are documentaries that eventually end up award winners. The list is too long to go through extensively here (over 200, despite TIFF’s attempts at shortening its own ranks). Rest assured that we will watch and cover them here as the festival progresses. The few movies that are premiering at TIFF that seem to have awards potential are Jessica Chastain’s movie, Aaron Sorkin’s directorial debut, called Molly’s Game, and maybe even I, Tonya, the Tonya Harding drama starring the beautiful Margot Robbie.
In a way, TIFF seems light years away. The big buzz has to drop from Venice and Telluride first. In another, it seems almost over, what with the speed with which it all goes, and the quickness with which it propels us into the next level.
Stay tuned.