They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
What NYFF Told Us About the Oscar Race
By J. Don Birnam
October 26, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Walter White, Michael Scott, and Morpheus walk into a bar...
With the end of the New York Film Festival, the early fall slate is complete and it is as good a time as any to take a look at where things may have shaken down since that last fest. We already saw how Telluride augured in contenders like Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, and how even TIFF surprised a little with festival acquisition I, Tonya, which surely has its eyes on some prizes. But what of our pals in the Big Apple?

New York: A Tale of Two Entries

The only true world premieres at NYFF this year were the Opening Night gala and the Closing Night gala. And while the Closing Night gala, Woody Allen’s Wonderwheel, probably will not go the way of past releases (think The Lost City of Z, which went nowhere, or that jazz movie whose name I can’t even remember), it still is not enough to make a lot of noise in the Best Picture race.

Last Flag Flying: Linklater is Back Without a Vengeance

Last year, after being a few outs away from winning the World Series against the Cubs, most predicted the Indians would come back with a vengeance and win it all this year, but it was not meant to be. Richard Linklater himself came oh-so-close, or at least such is the view amongst the intelligentsia, only to see his hopes dashed by Alejandro González Iñárritu’s band of Birdman misfits. I am not sure why of all things I thought of a baseball analogy, but it fits. Thus, while some may have thought that there was an IOU to Linklater after his crushing Boyhood loss, it just doesn’t work that way.

You have to have the goods, and while Last Flag Flying is good, it is purposefully quiet and lacks the emotional punch that the 12-year spanning movie had. The story centers around Steve Carell (who could get an Oscar nod in this weak Best Actor field) as he seeks to former buddies from the service while in Vietnam to help him bury his own son, who died in Iraq. The journey becomes a road trip of forgiveness about the past and philosophizing about the pointless nature of war. The movie is quietly and subtly political, but it is effective and does have an emotional conclusion.

Ultimately my prediction is the movie comes and goes Oscar night, a first for the NYFF after getting at least one if not multiple nods for its past six Opening Night galas.

Oscar Potential: Best Screenplay, Best Actor (Carrell), Best Editing

Wonderwheel: And So Is Woody Allen

Nor do I think Woody Allen is back with another winner a la Midnight In Paris or even Blue Jasmine, which at least netted a couple of Oscar nominations and a big win for its lead start. In Wonderwheel, Allen returns to New York, this time to that outer place called Coney Island, and returns to the 1950s setting he seemed to be hinting at with his last offering, Café Society. The film has a lot of the same tricks as many of his past movies, including the competition between two women for the same man (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), the mob playing a pivotal role (Café Society) and a boozy woman who is losing touch with reality (Blue Jasmine). Kate Winslet stars at the center of it all, the aging woman who falls in love with a younger guy while married to an unsatisfactory, dopey husband. She gives one of her best performances (and that is saying a lot), and is completely immersed and believable in this character. You may even find amusing the clever innuendos and reflections in the screenplay, the oh-shucks humor that has characterized Allen’s entire career.

But to say that he breaks no new ground is to put it kindly. The movie goes exactly where you think it’s going to go at every step. It is a remake, a rehash, a prequel, a sequel, a reboot of his entire body of work. He is content to do this, to work for the love of the art, and that is fine. But this won’t be his Starry Night or his Mona Lisa. It will be a lesser, later in life work that will be respected but not admired.

Oscar Potential: Best Actress (Winslet), Best Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costumes

Some Old Contenders Renewed

Meanwhile, as is their wont, NYFF showcased some of the best that they had liked from past film festivals, all the way back to Sundance. Most of these movies received warm to hot responses in New York, cementing their places in the Oscar races. I will not rehash the Oscar chances here of movies I had already covered, including Call Me By Your Name which did well throughout the season or Lady Bird which again wowed at least a portion of the critics, but I’ve linked to my past coverage.

But let me take a look at a couple of movies that had played before New York but that I had not yet had a chance to handicap, to see where they go from here.

The Florida Project: An Emotional Ride That Could Make Waves

Bar none, the best new movie I saw at NYFF was The Florida Project, by Tangerine director Sean Baker. The intrepid young indie filmmaker is back with another human, hyper realistic story, this one about a housing project-like motel in Central Florida, living in the shadow of the Magic Kingdom, its own tragic kingdom of sorts. In the units live a number of families, all struggling to make ends meet, all under the watchful eyes of manager Bobby, a strong Willem Dafoe.

But the movie belongs to a young and marvelous actress by the name of Brooklyn Prince, who will assuredly receive awards recognition at the very least as a breakout star. She plays Moonee, a young girl whose tattooed and unemployed mother is a bad influence and role model, to say the least, a six-year-old with an attitude and a sass to go along her endless desire to play around with her friends all day.

Offering an unapologetic but respectful and nuanced version of yet another group of people that Hollywood and our society forgets (purposefully), The Florida Project is the most intimate and real movie I have seen all year. I urge you to seek it out and to keep it on your radar because the movie will do well with Indie voting groups and has great Oscar potential.

Oscar Potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Prince), Best Supporting Actor (Dafoe), Best Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography

Mudbound: As Netflix Goes, So Goes the Nation?

On the other side of the ledger is potentially Netflix’s Southern race epic Mudbound. Perhaps the only movie with any significant non-white cast, the only one that may save us from another god awful #OscarsSoWhite disaster, Dee Rees’ Mudbound follows two families living in a small town in rural Mississippi on and around World War II. They are led by matriarchs (Carey Mulligan and Mary J. Blige), but each has to deal with different demons inherent in their respective skin colors.

The movie is well made and well-intentioned, but becomes conventional for the most part in its first half, more a showcase for nice costumes, great lighting, and moody shots and dangerous moments. In the second half, it picks up considerable steam when a favorite son of each family returns home from the war, each a broken man, and each with also different obstacles ahead. The two form a bond and friendship that teaches each of them something about the other’s race, and the audience is along for the ride.

The big problem is that Netflix and the Academy are seemingly at a standstill over the future of the medium, and I do not know that the Academy is ready to blink just yet. In a regular world, Mudbound would be, well, bound, for at least a handful of Oscar nominations. But with the politics surrounding Netflix, a goose egg is certainly likely.

Oscar Potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction

Could This Be The Year of the December Best Picture Winner?

So what does this mean? Does it leave us exactly where we started before Telluride? Dunkirk is the name of the game? I am not so sure. The TIFF win for Three Billboards means it is at least in second place and people keep having good reactions to it. We will have to wait to see how the first awards shake out.

Of course, in years like the Argo year, where a clear consensus had not emerged, Oscar pundits will say well maybe it is something we have not seen. That time, everyone bet on Zero Dark Thirty but the movie suffered a quick political takedown. This year the movie could be Steven Spielberg’s The Post, but since it is also political, will it suffer the same fate? Or you could point to the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel-Day Lewis film coming out in December, but do you really really think a Paul Thomas Anderson movie has a shot at the Oscars? I do not.

Given that past decade and more, I am still going to bet that we have already seen the Best Picture winner, but just do not know it yet. Once these last few movies screen, we will know more. Until then, I must admit my guess is simply that, a guess based on past results.

Up Next: We Will Have a Special Early Peek at This Year’s Intriguing Best Foreign Language Film Race, and then the Debut of Our Oscars Tracker Page for 2017!

Here I am on Twitter @jdonbirnam and Instagram @awards_predix.