Weekend Wrap-Up
Jigsaw Leads the Lowest as Box Office Bottoms Out
By John Hamann
October 29, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Everyone knows the movie business is going through a bit of a rough patch. Numbers have been down terribly compared to last year, but in my opinion, this weekend really hammers that idea home. The top 12 films this weekend earned only $60.2 million, and that number joins the worst of the worst over the last decade. Forgetting the always terrible late August and Labor Day weekends, this year’s top 12 finishes behind the October 30, 2016 weekend, which had a top 12 of $62.7 million, and the April 27, 2007 weekend which did $62.1 million. One has to go all the way back to September 8, 2006 for a lower score, when the top 12 earned $54 million thanks to a poor opening weekend from Screen Gems’ horror film The Covenant, which led the box office with only $8.9 million.
This weekend is similar, as Jigsaw returns to lead the Saw franchise to the box office, and Paramount and Universal try not to flail with Thank You For Your Service and Suburbicon, two films that opened on more than 2,000 screens, but fail to make the top five. Could there possibly be good news? No, but this is the end of the drought, as Thor: Ragnarok is going to blow the dust bunnies out of theaters next weekend – there is no doubt about it.
The franchise that made Lionsgate is back this weekend, as this is the series that pumped out seven Saw films over six years at a cost of only $70 million, with a domestic return of $415 million and an overseas gross that at least rivaled that number. The Saw films were Halloween weekend mainstays, with big opening days driven by a crazed fanbase. The last film in the series, Saw 3D, opened to $22 million thanks to its fanbase, but it could barely double that opening weekend, finishing with only $44 million. It proved to be the end of the franchise – at least for seven years, until this weekend when Jigsaw arrived, again courtesy of Lionsgate. Opening day showed audiences remembered the Saw villain well, as Thursday previews returned a better than expected $1.7 million, but that would be the last point in the weekend where expectations were met.
The combined Thursday preview/Friday gross came in at $7.1 million, this time lower than expected, as horror films - especially the Saw film - are front-loaded, so we knew already that Jigsaw was not going to hit $20 million for the weekend. If the film could achieve a 2.6 internal weekend multiplier, it would earn $18.5 million, and still be in the vicinity of the tracking estimates. Those estimates were loose, calling for a opening in the high teen millions to low $20 million. The Saturday number came in at $5.7 million, falling 21% compared to the opening day amount.
Unfortunately for Lionsgate, Jigsaw was performing very similarly to Saw VI, which was the lowest opening film of the series, debuting with $14.1 million. That film’s Friday came in at $6.95 million, and Saturday at $4.7 million, giving Jigsaw a slight $1.2 million lead over the weakest Saw entry by the end of the two biggest days of the weekend. Saw VI fell a massive 48% on Sunday, earning $2.45 million, whereas Jigsaw was estimated at $3.4 million, off 40%. That puts the weekend estimate for Jigsaw at $16.3 million, making it the second lowest opener in franchise history, ahead of Saw VI’s $14.1 million and behind the $18.3 million earned by the original Saw in 2004.
Made for $10 million, Jigsaw will neither make nor break Lionsgate. The trend shows that the R-rated flick will double its opening weekend, and earn about $30 million. The last two films released did better overseas than at home, and having earned $9.5 million this weekend, Jigsaw should be looking at $50 million internationally and a worldwide total of approximately $80 million. After advertising distribution splits are handled, Lionsgate should walk away with a middling amount of revenue. The mega million dollar question will remain: Do we keep going? Audiences still like what they see, even if critics don’t. The Cinemascore came in at a strong-for-horror B, and critics didn’t seem to care at all, with only 36 reviews registered at Rotten Tomatoes at the time of this writing, with the fright fest earning a 39% fresh score. None of it matters, as the Hulk and friends are going to tear it up next weekend when Thor: Ragnarok turns into jenga.
Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween does better than I expected it to do this weekend, and it still fell more than 50% (although that’s typical for a Perry film). After debuting last weekend to $21.2 million, the comedy earned an estimated $10 million this weekend, giving it a drop of 53%. The original Boo! fell a strong 40% in its second frame, representing the best second weekend hold for a Perry film. The increase in the second weekend drop is simple sequelitis, as those who enjoyed the original film may have come out on opening weekend to check out Perry in drag. The A- Cinemascore seems to be propping it up, as the sequel has taken in $35.5 million after 10 days, whereas the original had picked up $52.6 million. The other issue for Lionsgate is that this one cost $5 million more than the original, coming in with a budget of $25 million. Considering the original earned $75 million worldwide, Lionsgate may struggle to earn their investment back this time around.
It’s a sliding scale of bad this weekend as Geostorm, Dean Devlin’s $120 million disaster flick gets kicked further to the curb in its second weekend. After debuting to a terrible $13.7 million last weekend, Geostorm picks up only $5.7 million and falls a hurtful 59%. Like the rest of the blockbusters that have hurt US theaters this year, this one is doing great overseas. It has earned almost $115 million internationally, but will need a ton more to bail Warner Bros. out of this mess. Domestically, Geostorm has earned a terrible $23.6 million, and it will end careers.
In its third weekend, Universal added 237 screens to Happy Death Day’s run, breaking the normal process, and preparing their low budgeted hit for a healthy Halloween. The added screens helped the film earn $5.1 million and drop a not-bad 46%. The $4.8 million film has a domestic total of $48.4 million, and that is joined by an overseas tally of $20.2 million. Even in tough times movies can be hits, as long as the budget is right.
Blade Runner 2049 is fifth, and enjoys its first drop that doesn’t start with a "5." After falling 53% over consecutive weekends, the Blade Runner sequel earns $4 million and drops 46%. The $150 million sci-fi pic has a domestic total of only $81.4 million, but the overseas sits at a strong $142 million, which will help Warner Bros. with some of the losses they will face on this one.
War flick Thank You For Your Service opens in a terrible sixth, as the other two openers can’t hit the top five despite such a slow weekend. The Miles Teller flick earned only $3.7 million despite debuting on 2.054 screens. It had a venue average of only $1,802, and the weekend figure is the 66th worst ever. Its not like Universal didn’t try to open this film. They engaged the military, focused on the non-coastal states, and Teller did the late night TV rounds, but nothing worked. Audiences that saw it liked it (A- Cinemascore) and reviewers didn’t tear it apart (77% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes). The problem is this – only 71 critics saw this film, which in my mind indicates that many people took the weekend off to prepare for the massive Marvel film next weekend. Thank You cost $20 million to make, and likely won’t earn much overseas.
Sony’s firefighting movie, Only the Brave, also does worse than I expected this weekend. After debuting to $6 million last weekend, Only the Brave drops 43% in its second frame, picking up $3.5 million. Given the A Cinemascore, I thought it would have done better, but to date the $38 million true life tale has earned only $12 million.
Even Jackie Chan and The Foreigner beat Suburbicon this weekend, despite being out for three weeks. The Foreigner fell 45% to $3.5 million in weekend three, but now has an okay domestic gross of $28.8 million. Still, it has to be proud of the $88.4 million it has earned overseas, $80 million of that coming from China. It was made for $35 million, so the film should make money for those involved.
Suburbicon enjoys the 32nd worst opening weekend of all-time this weekend, despite starring Matt Damon, Oscar Isaac and Josh Brolin. The 29th worst opening belongs to From Justin to Kelly, but cost about 50% less than the $25 million Suburbicon. Directed by George Clooney, the thriller (?) earned a laughable $2.8 million, peanuts compared to what Damon or Clooney would have been paid for their larger efforts. Paramount put up the budget for this disaster, which earned a D- Cinemascore (I took a screen shot as I don’t believe I have seen that score – From Justin to Kelly earned a C+) and a 26% thoroughly rotten rating from RottenTomatoes. The Coen Brothers did write the screenplay, but in 1986. Maybe it was a prank on George Clooney, as I can’t imagine why so many talented people got involved.
Stephen King’s It is still the darling of the ball, despite finishing tenth. It fell only 29% and earned $2.5 million in its eighth weekend. The domestic tally is at $323.7 million, and the overseas at $342.9 million – for an eerie worldwide total of $666 million. Nice one New Line.
I reported above that the top 12 finished at a terrible $60.2 million, but I would bet my next BOP paycheck it finishes under $60 million. A year ago, the top 12 earned $78 million, led by the second weekend win of the original Boo film. Next weekend, Thor: Ragnarok looks to take down the 2016 trifecta of Dr. Strange, Trolls and Heartbreak Ridge, which combined for $147 million last year. Stranger things have happened, but at least some life will be back in theaters.