Weekend Wrap-Up
By Tim Briody
November 12, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
While next weekend DC, still riding high from the success of Wonder Woman, releases their version of The Avengers in the form of Justice League, it’ll still have some interesting competition in the form of Thor: Ragnarok. Or at least we’ll see how much direct competition really does affect a movie that’s already been in theaters and earned $211 million in two weekends. Ragnarok earned $56.6 million this weekend, down 54% from its opening weekend. While the total at this point feels somewhat paltry compared to the grosses of some of the other Marvel movies, Ragnarok has already surpassed the first Thor ($181 million in 2011) and The Dark World ($206.3 million in 2013) domestically. That’s stunning and shows the power of strong reviews (compared to the first two) and the importance of not taking itself so seriously.
Next weekend is the closest we’re probably ever going to get to a Marvel film and DC film going head to head, so I think it’ll be interesting to see how this affects Ragnarok’s third weekend. Unless the wheels fall completely off, Thor’s a lock for $300 million and beyond, another day at the office for Marvel but a figure Justice League would be ridiculously happy with.
We actually have some exciting news beyond the top movie at the box office, a remarkably close race among the two openers this weekend. Second place goes to Daddy’s Home 2, the sequel to the 2015 comedy that earned $150 million over the Christmas season. While the ending of the first movie clearly set up a sequel if it was a hit, it also benefited from the holiday box office boost, which made the November launch for the sequel an iffy proposition. It appears to have paid off so far as Daddy’s Home 2 earned an estimated $30 million on the weekend (though I’m sure there’s some creative accounting involved).
Daddy’s Home 2 brought back the team of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, along with adding their fathers in the forms of John Lithgow and Mel Gibson, and also with John Cena and Linda Cardellini. Despite atrocious reviews, there was a tremendous amount of goodwill involved and a little bit of star power thrown in, and thus you have a really strong opening weekend here. I don’t give it much of a chance to hold that well. Daddy’s Home opened on Christmas Day to $15.7 million and by the end of its second weekend had $93.8 million total. That absolutely won’t be the case here.
Third place goes to our other opener, an adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express. Directed by and starring Kenneth Branagh, along with an A-list cast (including Johnny Depp, Penelope Cruz, Willem Dafoe, Daisy Ridley and Leslie Odom, Jr.), the drama earned an estimated $28.2 million, coming in well ahead of most projections. The first theatrical adaptation of the novel since 1974, audiences were not dissuaded by the middling reviews (only 58% at Rotten Tomatoes), and likely benefited from older moviegoers for whom Daddy’s Home was too crude and Ragnarok was too loud. As opposed to Daddy’s Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express could potentially hold well over the next few weeks as an alternative to the superhero movies. Either way, it’s already pretty close to its reported $55 million budget so this is likely a win for Fox.
Fourth place goes to A Bad Moms Christmas, holding a little better than expected with $11.5 million, down 31% from last week. Despite a touch of competition in Daddy’s Home 2, the Bad Moms sequel held up its end of the bargain, though with $39.8 million in the bank after two weekends, its still a far cry from the $113 million earned by the original (which had $50 million in the bank at this point).
There’s mostly some ancient holdovers in the lower half of this chart, so it’s time for the lightning round.
Saw reboot Jigsaw dips another 48% with $3.4 million, giving it $34.3 million after three weekends. Made for pocket change found in some couch cushions, it’s still profitable for Lionsgate if they want to continue the gore-fest franchise.
Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween by Tyler Perry (I bet he’s thankful for 280 characters on Twitter) found another $2 million this weekend, giving it $45.9 million after four weekends. The Madea movies are still pretty cheap (this one’s billed at $25 million) and Perry still has a devoted, if small, audience, which will get it to $50 million.
In seventh, domestic flop but international hit Geostorm earned $1.5 million in its fourth weekend, giving it a total of $31.6 million. Blade Runner 2049 is down to under 1,000 theaters but clings to the top ten with $1.4 million and just $88 million after six weekends. Horror hit Happy Death Day (made for even less than Jigsaw) takes ninth with $1.3 million and $54.9 million in five weekends. Blumhouse has had a very good year.
Finally in tenth we have a good story with Lady Bird, written and directed by indie darling Greta Gerwig. With a weak lower half of the top ten, a film in just 37 theaters lands in the top ten with $1.2 million. The film is getting some minor Best Picture buzz, but moreso for its acting, with Saoirse Ronan in contention for Best Actress and Laurie Metcalfe for Best Supporting Actress, with Gerwig being mentioned for both director (in a really tough year) and screenplay. With this per screen average, Lady Bird becomes the big film to watch as we begin the move to prestige season.
The top 12 films this weekend earned $139.3 million, way off of last year’s $185.8 when the second weekends of Doctor Strange ($53.8 million) and Trolls ($39.7 million) were joined by the opening weekend of Arrival ($31.5 million). Next week shakes things up with the release of Justice League, reuniting Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, and some other superheroes.