They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Three Billboards Emerges Frontrunner After Wild Guild Week
By J. Don Birnam
January 11, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
You know what to do: Follow me on Twitter@jdonbirnam and Instagram @awards_predix.
Case of the Tuesdays: BAFTA and ASC
The BAFTA awards, as the British Oscars are known, have become Oscar wh--, excuse me, lovers, for years now. They want to predict the Oscars just like everybody else does. The difference between the Brits and the other wannabes is that the folks at BAFTA have substantial Academy overlap. Their choices do tell us a lot.
But, as with everything, there are limits. Don’t forget the cardinal rule: they like what they like. And they always default, particularly in nominations mode, to films that are more British in orientation. So consider that this year their five nominees were two Dunkirk-related films, Dunkirk and Darkest Hour of course, alongside a particularly European film, Call Me By Your Name, and the two perennial mainstays this season, Shape of Water and Three Billboards.
Think about. No Post, no Get Out, no Lady Bird. Moreover, the Steven Spielberg drama got completely shutout, not even Meryl made it, yielding her spot instead to Annette Bening for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. If that is not a sign of big trouble for The Post, I don’t know what is. The Big Sick suffered a similar fate, getting a goose egg. At least the two of Get Out and Lady Bird got screenwriting and acting nods (but no directing unlike here, more on that later). Meanwhile, the five directors matched the Best Film nominees except that they swapped out Joe Wright from Darkest Hour in the place of Dennis Villeneuve for Blade Runner: 2049. That film, by the way, did very well in the tech space, along with Del Toro’s film.
You can come up with all sorts of stats about “the last movie to miss at BAFTA to get this” etc., but you will be wasting a lot of your time. Every single movie other than Shape and 3BB has missed somewhere. Don’t play that game this year.
What about the American Society of Cinematographers? Well, they made history. They, for the first time ever (yes!) nominated a woman (a gay woman at that) for their award. The Oscars have not done so in their 89 whole years. The honor goes to Rachel Morrison for her intricate work in Mudbound. Can she repeat with AMPAS? That remains to be seen.
But, in any case, the other nominees were of course Shape, along with Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, and Blade Runner. This could very well be the Oscar final five, though that last spot (Morrison’s spot) could easily go to Three Billboards or elsewhere. This could be Roger Deakins’ best chance ever at the Oscar, though he has won the ASC before. Still, it is clear what movies have wide ranging tech support.
Hump Wednesday: Costumes, Sounds
Wednesday was a respite from big name awards, but not from awards themselves. The Costumer Designers’ Guild gave out their nominations in three categories, much like the Art Directors. And the Oscar normally is pulled from one of those.
This year, in period, they saw fit to mention, who else? The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Murder on the Orient Express and Greatest Showman, as well as the first guild nomination this season for the obliterated Phantom Thread. But don’t forget the contemporary nominees which include Get Out, 3BB, I, Tonya, and Lady Bird. So The Post had a goose egg day after a bad BAFTA showing, as did CMBYN after a good one. Go figure. The Costumer designers also have a fantasy piece, which again went to the ones you’d expect amongst the more popular movies.
Meanwhile, the Cinema Audio Society or CAS, also went for the ones you’d expect. Actually this makes me realize that my corollary that 3BB and Shape are the two mainstays is not quite complete. Those two are the two mainstays amongst the top prestigious guild. It is Shape and Dunkirk that always show up in the tech guilds. And so it was that those two got nods along Last Jedi, Wonder Woman, and a very deserved nod for Baby Driver. This could also be close to your Oscar lineup. But for the lack of acting awards, Dunkirk is toe to toe with Shape.
Big Beef Thursday: The Directors Speak
Considered one of the Big Three, the Directors’ Guild are normally the last to speak. The PGA and the SAG are of course powerful, but, at the very least when it comes to the Best Director Oscar, one would be forgiven for retiring the category. I can’t remember the last time the winner of the DGA did not also win the Academy Award, as it essentially happens every year. (The last year was the Argo year, though the last time it happened when the winning DGA director was nominated for an Oscar is 2003, without checking).
Anyway, so the DGA really did something different. There are only two American dudes there. McDonagh of course made it in for the Best Picture frontrunner Three Billboards and Chris Nolan finally made it for Dunkirk. But his spot could be in trouble. The likely winner is Del Toro for Shape of Water, both here and for the Oscar, and he was joined by Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird and Jordan Peele for Get Out. Greta could actually win it. And no black director has ever won this award (I know that sounds like a joke, but it is not). So they could seek to go in either of those directions. What is sure is that, one more, Del Toro and McDonagh’s movies come up again and again. The other three slots seem to rotate.
Sure, those three slots are stopping their spin a bit and are definitely coalescing around Lady Bird, Get Out, and Dunkirk. The Post is quickly fading, as is The Big Sick, Mudbound, and movies you may remember like The Florida Project. This could very well be the year of six nominees.
Up next: The Critics’ Choice Awards are Tonight and the ACE Eddie will nominate. Then we go into win mode. And, of course, the OSCAR nods.