They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
On the Eve of Oscar Nods, Do We Know Anything?
By J. Don Birnam
January 18, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Confounding Fifth Best Actress Slot
Best Actress has been strong in recent years, and it is therefore a category that has led to invariable surprises come nomination time. Just last year, everyone was stunned to learn that Amy Adams had missed out on a nod, and that her spot went to Ruth Negga, while the elusive fifth slot ended up going to French actress Isabelle Huppert.
This year, the situation is slightly different. There are four seemingly locked nominees, any of which missing out on a nod would be a snub of Adams proportions following last year’s result. They are likely winner Frances McDormand, her hottest competition, Saoirse Ronan, for a movie that has done remarkably well with the precursors as we shall see, Margot Robbie for I, Tonya, a movie that is getting more and more recognition as people see it, and Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water. The conventional wisdom from then is that the fifth slot belongs to Meryl Streep for her amazing performance in The Post. But, ironically enough, is Streep fatigue finally setting in?
Though she remarkably made it in last year for arguably a lesser turn in Florence Foster Jenkins, she appears to be in danger, having missed out to Judi Dench at SAG and to Annette Benning at BAFTA. But the difference with last year is that neither of these movies has done at all well in other contexts. Huppert, for example, had won the Globe, and Negga was a SAG nominee. The problem with trying to predict a Meryl Streep miss is: who would take her place? The only viable alternative if you ask me is Jessica Chastain for Molly’s Game, which has held its own, including with a PGA nod, or perhaps Michelle Williams for All The Money in the World following the disparate pay fiasco. How ironic would it be in another “year of the woman” if Meryl Streep missed out for portraying the first female publisher of an important newspaper? The awards race can be a perplexing thing. Right now my gut is sticking with Streep, but the “upset” is about to happen.
The Confounding Fifth Best Actor Slot
Unlike the ladies, there are not as many names for the male actors, but that leads to the same resulting problem. Who gets the fifth slot? Locked in seem Globe winners James Franco and Gary Oldman, as well as Timothee Chalamet, the critical and Twitter favorite. As the star of a solid Best Picture contender, Daniel Kaluuya seems pretty safe as well. Then what? Hanks? Day-Lewis? The latter may have overplayed his hand with the retirement announcement. His movie scored only a measly Costume Design Guild nod, and seems dead in the water. But how ironic would it be to nominate Hanks and not Streep in that film? I know it would be because of category competitiveness, but that is a PR headache the Academy likely wishes to avoid. But the bench is quite thin after them. I doubt Hugh Jackman has a chance for either of his contenders this year. It is likely Hanks or Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best Director: History or Nightmare in the Making
The DGA (which, to be fair, voted before the Globes), got Natalie Portman’s message loud and clear. They made history last week by nominating only two straight Anglo-Saxon dudes, Nolan and McDonagh, alongside a cadre of three people from elsewhere. Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and Guillermo del Toro joined the ranks of a historic group of nominees. The question now is, will the Academy follow suit?
There are very few 5 for 5 matches between the Academy’s and the Directors’ Guild’s lists. One, and sometimes more (as in the year of Argo), tend to be off. So who will miss? McDonagh and Del Toro seem impossibly safe given that their movies are so safe too. Gerwig’s film has also not missed out on essentially any guild, and the same may be said for Peele. Really, you could argue it will be Nolan that will miss. Still, his movie is a directorial achievement and some of the other ones may be viewed as “smaller.” Could McDonagh miss? It is a hard category to handicap. What of Dee Rees for Mudbound?
Frankly, this could be the year they match 5/5 again.
Best Picture: What We Really Do and Don’t Know
For a couple of years now, we have been using a highly unscientific chart to predict who will get Best Picture nominations. It is highly subjective and inherently unreliable on its face because it is based on assigning arbitrary values to different precursors, because it includes bodies with zero overlap with the Academy such as the Globes, and because it omits guilds like the sound editors or the VFX artists that do have common membership. And there are other reasons, which you can see immediately.
But the chart has nevertheless done well two years in a row. Last year, all the movies with a higher than 40% chance got in. Not a single one was missing in either direction, and that is pretty good. The year prior, the chart gave room almost zero chances of showing up (because, amongst its flaws, it does not assign points to the TIFF People’s Choice, which is essentially a Best Picture guarantee). Instead, it give the higher chance to the scandalously omitted Straight Outta Compton, which itself was problematic for the Academy.
This year, the chart (at the end of the article) is helpful but it is also in some trouble. It shows what we already know, which is that there are three movies (Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards) that have a Best Picture nomination in a deadly lock. Lady Bird’s tally is amazing, including nods from guilds such as art directors and costume designers, not exactly the ones you’d expect this high school dramedy to show up in. Like Get Out, its one blemish is missing out at BAFTA. Three Billboards has also done extremely well, with the WGA lack of nomination due to ineligibility knocking it down a notch (another flaw in the model).
In fourth place is Shape of Water, which is also a lock but whose lack of SAG ensemble nomination slows it down a bit. But no one is really worried about it. And that is why those four are such strong Best Director candidates as well.
From there it starts to get trickier. The only two other movies that the model has above 50% change are Dunkirk, which is, to be fair, a lock, but is suffering from the lack of SAG and WGA nominations, and Call Me By Your Name. That movie, though it has missed at SAG and DGA and is thus teetering under the model, seems safer to me. Consider that it has the important ACE nod, and that it did well with the Brits. It is a movie with strong support there, getting even a director nod. I would be surprised (though not floored given these numbers) if it missed out.
But that leaves us with only six. That has never happened under the Best Picture sliding scale. That is where the model is in trouble and where this year gets confusing and unpredictable. There are over 21 movies that got repeated guild mentions, including movies that are not getting a BP nod like Orient Express and Star Wars. But, clearly, there is guild support for a lot of stuff.
It seems safe to say that The Big Sick is in. While it has few below the line guild support (hence its lower chances), a PGA, SAG, BAFTA, WGA combo seems hard to argue with. It is not a movie that is going to get costume or production nods (though don’t tell that to Lady Bird). It is, like CMBYN, most likely in, but don’t be surprised if not.
Ok, so seven, that feels more normal. What is next? Next is a movie that I have listed in two places at once as likely and hoping for a miracle. What to make of The Post’s confounding awards race? Hard to tell. It has PGA and ACE from the Guilds and that is good, but most of the rest of its support comes from non-Oscar groups like the NBR and the Critics Choice. The Critics clearly like The Post, but the industry does not seem to. A lack of DGA, SAG, WGA, and, most stunningly, BAFTA, will be hard to overcome. It is hard to bet against a Spielberg film (all of his last have gotten in), but this could break the streak.
From then on it is anybody’s guess and those movies will likely stay on the outside looking in, although I, Tonya and Mudbound have passionate support enough to bump them in. I would not expect anything past those top ten to get anywhere near a nod, despite the last-minute surge for Molly’s Game. And columns will be written years from now about whatever happened to The Florida Project.
In For Sure
Lady Bird
Get Out
Three Billboards
Shape of Water
Likely In
Dunkirk
CMBYN
The Big Sick
The Post
Hoping for a Surprise
The Post
Mudbound
Molly’s Game
I, Tonya
Hoping for a Miracle
Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars
Logan
Darkest Hour
Wonder Woman
The Disaster Artist
Just Forget It
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread
Baby Driver
Downsizing
Up Next: The Third and Final Phase Begins with Oscar Nominations on Tuesday