They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Final Predictions for 90th Oscar Nominations
By J. Don Birnam
January 22, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Dunkirk really doesn't have to look over its shoulder.
It is all over but the crying folks, and it is time to predict what we think will be vying for Oscar glory come Tuesday morning as the Academy announces the contenders for the Awards of Merit at the 90th Academy Awards. There are many things that seem locked and loaded, while there are always questions around the edges, and there are always surprises.

So here are our final predictions for nominations, alphabetically by category. I’ll be reacting to the nominations on Twitter and Instagram, as usual.

Before getting down to the rote listing of names, let’s discuss some of the open questions. We already talked about the confounding fifth actress slot. Against all precursors, I’m going to predict Meryl is shut out for the first time ever, and we see Michelle Williams get in instead given the goodwill she has garnered in the last few weeks over the All the Money In the World pay disparity fiasco. But of course Streep or Chastain still have a shot.

Last year I did very well in the three “other Best Picture races,” going five for five in Doc, Animated, and FLF. This year, all three are relatively much, much weaker. I cannot make heads or tales of the other slots outside the one or two favorites.

There are many other mini-subplots to ponder. The DGA made history by nominating a woman, a black director, and a Hispanic director, along two white males. Can that be replicated at the Oscars? Who will miss? Part of me wants to predict Three Billboards’ McDonagh to miss. Between him and Nolan, the movie is the least “most directed.” I am assuming here that the other three are safe due to a combination of merit and the diversity pushes (is that OK to say? I hope so!). But I keep pulling myself off of the ledge from which I stand because of my own dislike for Three Billboards. The industry by all measures likes it, and I think they will reward its director. Most likely, it will be Greta or Peele to miss, if there is not a five for five match. If #MeToo were not a thing this year, I would pick Greta to miss as it seems the “least directed” of the five. It is a crude methodology and I do not mean to take from her efforts. But, women have made their voices rightly heard, and I think the miss (again, if there is one) will be for Peele. It seems silly though, to think they will reward The Post with a director nod and little else, but there you have it.

And of course whenever there are tech-heavy movies, the question is always how high they can go. But for The Shape of Water to break the record and win 15 nominations, it would have to pull off some upsets in the acting categories and get more of its contenders in. It was eliminated in the bake-off for Make-Up, so it’s road to 15 is not clear.

For Best Picture I’m going to go againstmy better judgment and go with eight, which is what I predicted last year and came to pass. I just don’t see the spread the wealth love this year, where everything has coalesced around a handful of movies. My gut tells me six nominees. Of the ones I have listed below, The Post and I, Tonya are in the most trouble. I picked them basically because I like them so much. I think The Big Sick is dead. That really leaves only six viable options. We shall see.

Oscar predicting can be truly confounding even for supposed “experts.” Last year I did remarkably well with my nominations, only to go on to truly wet the bed when it came to predicting actual winners. Shrug emoji?

Best Foreign Language Film
Chile – A Fantastic Woman
Germany – In The Fade
Denmark – The Square
Israel – Foxtrot
Russia – Loveless
Alt: Lebanon – The Insult

Best Documentary Feature Film
Chasing Coral
Ex Libris
Faces Places
Jane
Long Strange Trip
Alt: City of Ghosts

Best Animated Feature Film
The Breadwinner
Coco
Despicable Me 3
Girl Without Hands
Loving Vincent
Alt: The Lego Batman Movie

Best Make-Up And Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner: 2049
Dunkirk
Okja
The Shape of Water
War For Planet of the Apes
Alt: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner: 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Alt: Greatest Showman

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner: 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: Wonder Woman

Best Original Song
Call Me By Your Name (Mystery of Love)
Call Me By Your Name (Visions of Gideon)
Coco (Remember Me)
Greatest Showman (This is Me)
Marshall (Stand Up For Something)
Alt: Mudbound (Mighty River)

Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: Victoria & Abdul

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
Alt: Shape of Water

Best Production Design
Blade Runner
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Alt: Murder on the Orient Express

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner: 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Alt: Three Billboards

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Alt: Three Billboards

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Victoria & Abdul
Alt: Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Cristopher Plummer – All The Money In the World
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: Armie Hammer – Call me By Your Name

Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Alt: Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread

Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt: Tom Hanks – The Post

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Michelle Williams – All The Money In the World
Alt: Meryl Streep – The Post

Best Director
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg – The Post
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Alt: Jordan Peele – Get Out

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
The Post
Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: The Big Sick