They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Three Billboards Wins at BAFTAs on Eve of Oscar Voting
By J. Don Birnam
February 19, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Let’s take a look at what the final big precursor means for the Oscars race on the eve of voting. As you are reading this, ballots are being mailed out/transmitted to Academy members. Voting will happen from February 20 through February 27, with the Academy having at its disposal the full panoply of what all major guilds think of the nominated movies
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Below The Line: Most Went as We Expect Them to at the Oscars
Many of the below the line races seem easier to predict this year than last, and the BAFTAs confirmed it. Dunkirk, for example, won Best Sound, a win that most are predicting to recur at the Academy Awards. Darkest Hour took home makeup, another award we are expecting will happen again. The same goes for The Shape of Water’s two tech BAFTA wins, for Score and Production Design. Those will likely be my predictions for March 4th as well. Finally, Phantom Thread triumphed in Costume Design, which is another win you can probably mark down on your Oscars ballot. The tech races seem easier this year.
A couple of eyebrow-raising choices are noteworthy. After winning the top prize at the American Society of Cinematographers’ ceremony (his fourth win there), Roger Deakins repeated at the BAFTAs for his splendid work on Blade Runner: 2049. Deakins has been famously snubbed thirteen times by the Academy, but this could be his year given those precursors. We will take a more in-depth look at this race in our column later this week, but suffice it to say that a movie winning this category and not be nominated for Best Picture is a rare feat that Blade Runner will have to deal with.
The other interesting win of the night was Baby Driver for film editing. Again, we will look more closely later this week, but the win is not an implausible won at the Academy Awards. Dunkirk is of course the most obviously edited of the movies, but they may like the action movie more.
BAFTA of course is not always correct. Last year, they correctly telegraphed the eventual Oscar wins for Arrival’s sound and Hacksaw Ridge’s editing. But they also picked Jackie for Costumes and Fantastic Beasts for Production Design, both of which the Academy did not. An entire match below the line would be unprecedented.
Acting: The Historic Foursome Clear Path to Oscar Glory
The acting races, on the other hand, seem more predictable, and BAFTA basically just added a “me too” to the chorus. As in prior contests this year, Francis McDormand won Best Actress for Three Billboards, Gary Oldman won Best Actor for Darkest Hour, Allison Janney won Supporting Actress for I, Tonya, and Sam Rockwell won Supporting Actor also for Three Billboards. These four have won the Critics’ Choice award, the Globe, the SAG award. The last time the four acting races won all four precursors? Never. The last time someone won all four and lost the Oscar? Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, though of course there was a huge controversy with him at the eleventh-hour that cost him the win.
Again, BAFTA can be wrong. They thought Dev Patel for Lion would be the eventual Best Supporting Actor winner last year, and they were wrong. But Patel did not have the three other precursors, Mahershala Ali had two of them. It would be ballot suicide to predict an upset in one of these four because your chances of guessing which one, correctly, will be close to zero. If Leslie Manville, for example, could not win with home court advantage, it seems as if nothing can stop Janney. The same goes for Willem Dafoe in his race. I will be picking those four on March 4.
Directing: Del Toro In Good Shape
The directing race also seems done this year. The BAFTAs me-tooed the DGA win and the Globe win, and it is very rare for someone to pull of that trifecta and lose. Ben Affleck did it, but he was not nominated for the Oscar. David Fincher won at BAFTA but lost to Tom Hooper. And the BAFTAs gave it to Richard Linklater the year of Boyhood/Birdman. Again, however, those did not have all the necessary wins. And if Three Billboards really is still the film to beat, the Academy cannot reward it in this race.
Picture: Is It Three Billboards After All?
The big surprise (?) of the night came when Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri won not just Outstanding British film, but Best Film as well. Not only is that combo a rare one for BAFTA (the last being in 1992), it raises fresh questions about whether the Oscars Internet universe is simply wrong that Three Billboards is divisive and cannot win. The movie has won the Globe, the SAG ensemble, and now the BAFTA. That’s pretty good--Birdman had those wins for example. Of course, Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu’s movie also had the PGA and DGA to go alone with it, and those went to The Shape of Water this year. In addition, BAFTA has been wrong about Best Picture three years in a row now, including picking Gravity, The Revenant, and last year La La Land, all of which lost the Best Picture Oscar.
We will also analyze the Best Picture race more closely next week, but suffice it to say that those dismissing this movie’s chances because of supposed Internet backlash or the lack of a Best Director nomination, are missing the fact that Three Billboards hits every single other note eventual winners do. Every single one. All of the other movies are missing at least one, and most of them several indicative precursors.
It is too close to call.
Full List of BAFTA Winners
Best Film: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best British Film: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Editing: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Best Sound: Dunkirk
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Special Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Original Music: The Shape of Water
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Film Not in the English Language: The Handmaiden
Best Documentary: I Am Not Your Negro
Best British Short Film: Cowboy Dave
Best Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer: I Am Not a Witch
EE Rising Star Award: Daniel Kaluuya