They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Below The Line, Part II
By J. Don Birnam
February 20, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Although there is room for some error at the margins, this seems like an easier year in terms of predicting these. At the very least, most people have reached consensus, so most of us will rise or fall together. You have probably read me say, over the years, that the Oscars are becoming more and more predictable. After how badly I did last year and the Moonlight stunner, I’ve been obviously wearier. Still, it seems like we are headed for such a year again.
Last year, I went 3/5 here, missing Editing and Visual Effects, except I stupidly switched some of the correct predictions at the last minute despite having more guild information. D’Oh. Still, I feel like this year should be a 4/5 or even 5/5 year here unless there is a left field spoiler. Let’s take a look and follow me on Twitter and Instagram if you disagree.
Best Visual Effects
Let’s do these more systematically since all the players are in: we can give some precursor stats first, then apply to the five nominees. Since the preferential ballot expansion in 2009, the VFX Society has predicted the eventual Best Visual Effects Oscar 5 out of 8 times in their “Effects Driven” race, considered their most important. Two of their misses are when they picked the first two Planet of the Apes sequel, the third for The Force Awakens. Their pick this year? Again Planet of the Apes. The BAFTAs have done better, going 6 out of 8 (and never for the Apes), missing Ex Machina when they picked The Force Awakens. Their pick this year? Blade Runner 2049.
Meanwhile, over with the Academy, some things to note. The last time a movie won its sole nomination in this category was actually last year, when The Jungle Book’s motion capture won. Before that, it was over 25 years ago, when Death Becomes Her did it in 1992. Best Picture nominees have only lost to a non-nominee one time, the year of Ex Machina, but this year the branch decided to avoid the obvious nominations for movies like Dunkirk and went with straight effects-driven films.
The foregoing means that you can safely count out Kong: Skull Island and Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 from contention. Both scored their only nomination here and have received no precursor love. It would be a huge upset to see either of them crowned.
What about Star Wars: The Last Jedi? If you look at the history of the franchise, the first three entries walked away with Oscars in this category. But despite getting both the VFX and BAFTA awards, the first of the third set of trilogies lost the Oscar in a hyper-competitive year. Then, three Best Picture nominees faced off against each other, even though the Alicia Vikander futuristic movie prevailed over all four. I guess they could look to recompense Star Wars, and the effects in the movie are pretty good, but I would not count on it.
This brings it down to the last Apes sequel, War for the Planet of the Apes, and the Denis Villeneuve movie, Blade Runner 2049. While you can make a good case that Apes is overdue, etc., they have had a chance to reward it twice and passed. Several trips to the nominations did not help the Harry Potter franchise, for example, ever get recognition. Apes has only one nod across all categories, and they do not seem to respect those movies. Blade Runner, by contrast, has several nominations, is by an “auteur,” and is considered high-brow by some. It is not a sure thing by any means but you can probably feel pretty confident.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War For the Planet of the Apes
Best Costume Design
In the costumes category, Jacqueline Durran earned her 5th and 6th nods for Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour. This is not the first time this happens, indeed it happened as recently as two years ago when Sandy Powell got double nods for Carol and Cinderella, only to lose the Oscar to Mad Max. In any case it seems as if the award is between the BAFTA winner, Phantom Thread by past winner Mark Bridges (who costumed The Artist) and Luis Sequeira, earning his first nomination for The Shape of Water. Consolata Boyle, on her third nomination in the category for her work in Victoria & Abdul, is just an onlooker.
The BAFTA guessed wrong last year, going for Jackie while the Academy went for Fantastic Beasts, but, before that, they had a string of consecutive guesses right stretching back through 2008, a pretty spectacular stat. That's 8-1 since the Best Picture expansion.
What about the Guild? The CDG's Contemporary award has never gone to the eventual Oscar winner (in the 19 year history of the awards), reflecting that the Oscars do not really go for that type of costumes. This year, the trend will continue, as they picked the not-nominated I, Tonya over Best Picture contender Three Billboards. Their period piece award does better, with 7 out of 19 wins, though last year they went for the not-nominated Hidden Figures. This time around, it was Best Picture contender Shape of Water that triumphed here, over the supposed front-runner in the race, Phantom Thread. So, watch out for that.
Given the above, I'm playing the odds and picking BAFTA, but note of course that they do like to reward technical movies and/or sweep here. Though Best Picture-wannabe La La Land did not win here, they did go for the super different costumes of Mad Max on its way to a huge tech sweep. On the other hand, The Shape of Water's costumes are not as over the top (and they like that in this category) which means Shape or, heck, even Beauty and the Beast, are real threats here.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Best Production Design
The Production Design Oscar, which goes hand in hand with Costume Design more often than not, does appear to be going in a different direction this time around. And, like Costumes, they are not afraid to award a non-Best Picture nominee here, doing so five total times since the 2000s. But that will not be a problem this year.
The Art Directors’ Guild has three awards each year, so it has been able to guess the eventual Oscar winner more often than not in the last nine years, usually in the period film category. Last year, however, it was their contemporary film pick, La La Land, that eventually took home the Best Art Direction Oscar. The one year they had a complete strikeout was in 2013, when Lincoln surprised everyone at the Academy Awards. The ADG picked Blade Runner Logan (not up for an Oscar) and The Shape of Water as its winner.
The BAFTAs have done slightly more poorly here than in other races, going “only” 5 for 8 and incorrectly picking Fantastic Beasts (not a BP nominee!) here last year. This year they went for The Shape of Water.
Given the foregoing, I would be surprised if the win went to Blade Runner 2049, despite the ADG win, given that it seems to lack key precursors. The same can be said of the lush and lavish interior set designs of Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour. I admire both, but not a single precursor win makes it highly unlikely—the only precedent for that is Lincoln, and good luck randomly and correctly guessing such an outcome at the Oscars.
It seems almost as if The Shape of Water will win this by default, with dark and rich sets not dissimilar to Lincoln’s, actually, whereas Dunkirk’s set design seems quaint by comparison.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Darkest Hour
Best Cinematography
Best Cinematography is another prestigious tech award that sometimes holds clues to the Best Picture race. Best Picture contenders have a string of 11 consecutive victories here. The last time this did not happen was back to back in 2006 and 2007 when Memoirs of a Geisha and Pan’s Labyrinth (Del Toro’s last awards contender) did it. Before that you have to go to Legends of the Fall in 1995. Indeed, from Braveheart in 1996 through American Beauty, the winner of this prize was also your Best Picture winner except once. Last year, after Emmanuel Lubezki finally released his three-peat stranglehold on the category, the prize went to La La Land.
What about precursor stats? The BAFTA liked Blade Runner: 2049 this year, as did the American Society of Cinematographers. The BAFTA missed the first three years of the Best Picture expansion, but since they changed their voting system in 2012 to match the Academy’s, they have correctly predicted this race every single time. The ASC, meanwhile, gave the same five nominations as the Oscars did for only the second time in their history (the first was last year), but their record since the expansion is spotty. Last year they went for Lion. The three years prior they went for Lubezki, but those were easy years.
The two years prior to that they incorrectly went for The Three of Life (again Lubezki) and Skyfall, Deakins’ third win at the ASC at the time. This brings us to the elephant in the Deakins room.
First, you can probably knock out the dark and moody lighting of Darkest Hour. Though it is my favorite and one of the most showy, there is too much else going on in this race to put any serious money on it. Meanwhile, while Rachel Morrison became the first woman ever nominated in this race, for Mudbound (this was the last of the Oscar categories without a woman nominee), I am not sure this will translate into a victory. To be sure, some voters will lean in, but will it be enough?
The three difficult choices are the beautiful and varied cinematography of The Shape of Water, the overwhelmingly powerful camera work in Dunkirk (particularly the stunning aerial shots), and the work of Master Deakins in Blade Runner 2049. This is tough one folks. Although the work in Shape is powerful, it is not present most of the film. But non-Best Picture winners like La La Land, The Revenant, and Gravity have all won here, so it could be its consolation prize.
Others will say that Deakins is obviously overdue, so go there. Of course he has won the precursors below, only to lose the Oscar, including in the early 2000s when he won BAFTA and ASC and still lost. This is a close race where taking your emotions out of it will help you get it correct.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Best Film Editing
Finally, the crown of the below-the-line races, the Film Editing Oscar that is so important only a couple of movies in the last 30 years have won Best Picture without being nominated here (Birdman and Ordinary People, so watch out Get Out and Lady Bird).
First the stats: since the Best Picture expansion in 2009 (true, small sample sizes), the BAFTA has gotten this one right 6 out of 8 times, including three years in a row. Last year, for example, they picked Hacksaw Ridge, which should have warned us about the upcoming Oscar win for that movie in that race. The two movies they missed—Rush in 2014 and Senna in 2012—were not even nominated for the Best Film Editing Oscar. Those Oscars went, surprisingly, to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo in 2012, and more expectedly to Gravity in 2014. This year, the BAFTA picked Baby Driver.
Over on the guild side of things, the ACE Eddie award is another guild with a mediocre track record. Since the expansion, they are 4 for 8 if you consider their drama prize, while their comedy editing prize (which last year went for La La Land) hasn’t predicted the Best Editing Oscar since Chicago in 2003. This year, the prizes went to Dunkirk and I, Tonya. One has to wonder if the preferential ballot or the expansion has something to do with this. In the 1990s, the ACE Editor guild predicted the Oscar win 9 out of 10 times, a feat they matched in the 2000s. But not since.
As for a non-Best Picture nominee ousting a contender here, it happens every few years. Before the aforementioned Fincher movie about Lisbeth Salander triumphed over four Best Picture nominees in 2012, The Bourne Ultimatumdid it in 2008 (also winning Sound Oscars), and it was Black Hawk Down in 2002. Both had several other tech nods.
This year, you can probably quickly knock out Three Billboards, The Shape of Water,and I, Tonya. These movies have nothing going for them in this category—they have little to no precursors, are not action movies, and one of them is not even a Best Picture contender. I would be floored if any of those pulled it off and, frankly, if it’s one of the two nominated movies you can probably be sure it will win Best Picture too.
It really is between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, and I am impossibly torn. The Chris Nolan movie has the obvious editing of the three-part story structure. The other one is an action movie, fast-paced and loud. I am trying hard not to let my own love for Dunkirk cloud this (so you have been warned) and I may still switch this. This one will be a tough call.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver