Weekend Forecast for June 8-10, 2018
By Reagen Sulewski
June 9, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Not exactly a reboot but a retooling, Ocean's 8 spins off the Oceans franchise with an all female crew, led by Sandra Bullock, playing the sister of George Clooney (whose character is now deceased in the franchise, tying a little bow on that). Those of you out there who excel at math will note that there is room cleverly left to fill in a trilogy in the vein of Clooney/Pitt's films (I'll wait for you to confirm...) assuming that these prove reasonably popular. While other gender-flipped casts haven't come out strong, this one feels like it has a chance.
Also in Bullock's crew are Cate Blanchette, Mindy Kaling, Sarah Paulson, Helena Bonham Carter, Rihanna, and something named Awkwafina, while Anne Hathaway plays their mark, a fashion designer whose wares are what they want to pilfer at the annual Met Gala – you know, the one that has all the pictures of the insanely impractical and wildly themed outfits the day after it happens. Rihanna went this year as, essentially, Disco Pope.
But I digress. Directed by Gary Ross, it follows a lot of the same patterns – Bullock, a recent parolee, putting together a job because it's all she knows how to do, from a bunch of old friends and talented new recruits, and which is very possibly directed at settling some old grudge. A stylish blend of caper and comedy, it's looking to recapture Ocean's 11's breezy vibe while maintaining a puzzle-box feel. Getting its cast to feel like a bunch of people just hanging around and happening to shoot a movie at the same time is a cherry on top.
Comparisons are limited, but the Ocean's movies were never huge opening films in their time, all coming in just under $40 million (though we're ten years past the last one, so add in some inflation to that). Something like The Heat might be a film to look at, although it was a little more broadly comedic. Backlash seems to be minimal here compared to something like Ghostbusters, both since this is a less fanboyish franchise, and also because it's a lot harder to hate on Bullock (Kaling might be the only actress in this bunch who'd come in for social media hate, but even then that'd be slight). Reviews are solid as well, although it's not reaching the heights of Soderbergh's films. I'd expect this to come in with about $44 million this weekend.
A strange trend in the last few years has been critically acclaimed horror movies, not just in terms of the genre, but against all films, without caveat. Going back to the Conjuring movies, then through last year's Oscar winning Get Out and this spring's A Quiet Place, big money has gone hand in hand with great reviews. Horror has often been synonymous with cheapo budgets and slap dash filmmaking, but of late, writers and directors have been applying real craft to what's often an afterthought of a genre. Hereditary is the latest of these, coming in with huge buzz from Sundance and SXSW.
Toni Collette stars as a woman dealing with the death of her overbearing mother and the legacy she has left for her family. In her absence, secrets begin to be revealed that hint at disturbing and unsettling truths, while strange and unexplainable events start to occur. Even Collette's hobby of building dioramas, often of her own house and family setting, starts to be affected as inexplicable changes happen within them that point to something supernatural.
Going more for a disturbing and creepy tone than one of murders and jump scares, Hereditary has won over audiences from the very beginning, who have called it unshakable and terrifying. While it doesn't have quite the same kind of easy sell hook as the last couple of buzzy horror films, it has some seriously effective ads and the heavy weight of those reviews behind it. I'd anticipate this one continuing to build as word gets out, and it should open to around $13 million this weekend.
A tremendously odd looking action film rounds out the new films. Hotel Artemis takes place in a near-future Los Angeles where gangs run the streets but a strange criminal code has taken hold with safehouses running under strict rules operate to serve them. After a robbery goes wrong, a couple of these criminals (Sterling K. Brown, Brian Tyree Henry) hole up in the titular hotel run by Jodie Foster (in heavy old age makeup and with some ... odd character decisions). Also in the cast of kooks are Charlie Day as some sort of psychotic dandy, Sofia Boutella as a sexy hitwoman and Dave Bautista as an orderly there to enforce the hotel's rules (among them, no killing people within the confines).
Enter Jeff Goldblum as a very Goldblumish mob boss trying to retrieve an item that Henry has stolen, leading to a siege of the hotel and an everyone for themselves situation. He's just one more thing to add onto the pile of quirks that is this film, which welds its strange setting and obsession with defined rules to deliberately odd cinematography and performances. It feels a bit like some recent heavily stylized action films such as Smokin' Aces or Free Fire – but this genre rarely does well. I'd expect about $7 million here this weekend.
Solo followed up its disappointing opening weekend with a fairly disastrous second one, dropping by two-thirds to $29 million and reaching just $149 million by the end of the weekend. With its double-sized budget of $225 million and weak international support, this is looking to be the first “bomb” in the Star Wars universe, and which may struggle to even break $200 million domestically. It should see about $12 million this weekend.
Deadpool 2 didn't slide as badly as over Memorial Day weekend but is very definitely proving not to be as leggy as its predecessor. The fourth weekend for this film should see about $11 million as it heads to a little over $300 million – not a disaster by any means, but a worrisome slip.
Romantic adventure film Adrift should see a slide to around $7 million this weekend after an $11 million bow, with around $40 million as a good target domestically. Avengers: Infinity War continues to be a bit feisty with around $6 million this weekend, but I ultimately think $700 million is going to stay out of reach, leaving Black Panther as the clubhouse leader for 2018 domestic box office.