They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Roma Leads Historic 91st Oscar Nominations
By J. Don Birnam
January 22, 2019
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Those two were joined by other awards-season repeats in the eight-movie Best Picture lineup that included A Star Is Born (with eight nominations), The Favourite (coming in strong with ten), BlacKkKlansman, and Vice. Meanwhile, Golden Globe winners Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody also made it into the final list, but looked relatively weaker, with only five nominations apiece, and few in the key categories. Notably, both missed out on important Best Director nominations, and Bohemian Rhapsody did not even score a screenplay nod.
On the other side of movies exceeding expectations, you can first turn to the leader itself, Roma. Not only did it land director, original screenplay, and cinematography nominations for Cuarón, it also landed Best Actress, and, stunningly, Best Supporting Actress nominations for its two stars, Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira, to go along with a bevy of technical nods and what could be Mexico’s first-ever Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.
But other movies also exceeded expectations, and among those you can count Poland’s Oscar submission Cold War, which received an expected nod in the Foreign Language Film race but also a Best Director nod for helmer Pawel Pawlikowski, as well as a cinematography nod. It will square off with Roma in all three categories. The Academy also reminded us that there is a strong contingent of Coen Bros. supporters, given that their film The Ballad of Buster Scruggs received three nominations, for adapted screenplay, original song, and costume design.
In the acting categories, Aparicio will have to fight off favorite Glenn Close, who was joined, as expected, by Melissa McCarthy, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman. Her co-lead, Tavira, will face prohibitive odds against If Beale Street Could Talk’s Regina King, though that film did not do as well as many had hoped, including missing out on a Best Picture nomination. Tavira and King will also compete against two ladies from The Favourite, (Emma Stone & Rachel Weisz), as well as against Amy Adams from Vice, her sixth nomination without a win.
The male acting categories were a tad more predictable, with Rami Malek and Viggo Mortensen from the two Globe winning films squaring off against Christian Bale, Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), and Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born. The supporting race features Mahershala Ali, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, and Sam Rockwell for Vice.
Stay tuned for predictions as the season develops and as we go along. Right now, Roma seems to be the prohibitive favorite, but The Favourite did do very well, as did ‘BlacKkKlansman. The latter two, whoever, have not won as many precursor prizes. What happened to A Star Is Born will remain a mystery for now.
As for how I did with my predictions, I nailed Best Actress and Supporting Actor, going five for five, and picked all eventual eight nominees (though I also picked a ninth movie that did not get in). I really embarrassed myself with Best Director, picking only two of the five eventual nominees, and in editing I missed all but one of the names read out loud. In total, I went 87/121 for about 72%, my usual score from prior years, and it goes up to 80% if I count alternates.
Full list of nominations below.
If you have thoughts on these nominations let me know on Twitter and Instagram, as usual.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Spike Lee – Blackkklansman
Adam McKay – Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
Best Actor
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Best Costume Design
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Best Make-Up And Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Best Documentary Feature Film
Free Solo
Hail County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Father and Sons
RBG
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Song
All The Stars – Black Panther
I’ll Fight – RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns
Shallow – A Star Is Born
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurts – Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Live Action Short
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Best Animated Short
Animal Behavior
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Best Documentary Short
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night At the Garden
Period. End of Sentence