Friday Numbers Analysis
By Tim Briody
July 24, 2004
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Bourne Supremacy
With an incredible $19.1 million Friday, The Bourne Supremacy more than doubles the opening night number for 2002's The Bourne Identity. Credit the word-of-mouth the film got and the solid business it did on DVD and video. The Bourne Identity had a 3.09 multiplier off an $8.8 million Friday figure. We can't expect that here as there's a considerably higher Friday rush factor, but even a 2.8 internal multiplier gives The Bourne Supremacy $53.4 million for the weekend.
Catwoman
The comic book adaptation opened to $6.2 million Friday. Figure most of that total was teenagers out to stare at Halle Berry or those wanting to view a train wreck. We'll be on the generous side and give it an internal multiplier in the realm of 2.8, giving Catwoman $17.3 million for the weekend.
Notable Holdovers
I, Robot tumbles like a typical summer popcorn movie, plunging 61.5% from last Friday. Cannibalized by The Bourne Supremacy or perhaps slightly too cerebral for a summer movie? Either way, I, Robot will face a 55% decline for the weekend.
A Cinderella Story just narrowly avoids the 50% decline from last Friday, but that's not a good sign for its future. It will improve to around a 40% decline from last weekend, though that's not how you hold on to your screens.