Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
October 24, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Prestige anchored a relatively dull weekend at the box office by earning $14.8 million. Are you surprised it won the weekend?
Joel Corcoran: I'm not surprised at all, really. I mean, what else out there could beat it?
Tim Briody: I think we all had figured it would go to Flags of Our Fathers. After all, this movie was already released a month or two ago when it was called The Illusionist.
Kim Hollis: I know a lot of forecasters were thinking Flags of Our Fathers would grab the weekend, but given the modest screen count and the subject matter (war), I figured it was going to be more of a slow-grower. The Prestige at least had some intriguing ads and a solid cast.
David Mumpower: Tim, I certainly thought Flags of Our Fathers would win the weekend. I didn't expect any of the new releases to break out, but I am caught off guard by the surprisingly strong debut by The Prestige.
Joel Corcoran: Flags of Our Fathers struck me as too much of a "serious movie" versus The Prestige, though. With Christian Bale and Hugh Jackman versus a film directed by Clint Eastwood, I was giving a slight edge to the action/thriller over the historical drama.
Tim Briody: I guess there was something to having Batman and Wolverine in your movie.
Reagen Sulewski: Yes, but Flags of Our Fathers is the perfect kind of fall movie with both critical acclaim and an easy to understand premise. It really should have been no problem.
Kim Hollis: I don't think the Batman/Wolverine connection is a bad one at all. Separately, they're not particular draws (though Jackman is perhaps a small one). Together, they're interesting.
Reagen Sulewski: It's odd, since this is almost exactly my prediction for the film on the weekend. But it's just a weak number to top a weekend.
Tim Briody: Especially in mid-October.
Joel Corcoran: And throw in the director of Batman Begins, Kim, and you've got an even more intriguing mix.
Kim Hollis: What urgency is there to see any of this weekend's new films, though? For most movie-goers, they all scream "I can wait for DVD".
Tim Briody: Or "I'll wait to see if it gets any award nominations."
Clint Eastwood just filmed 14 movies while we had this discussion
Kim Hollis: Flags of Our Fathers debuted with an estimated $10.2 million. Should Warner Bros. be satisfied with this performance?
David Mumpower: I think it's a yes and no situation. Million Dollar Baby didn't cross the $10 million barrier until its seventh week of release; however, that movie had the staying power to earn $100 million. I think we all agree Flags of Our Fathers won't do that barring unforeseen behavior later in its run. As such, it's a disappointment of sorts.
Kim Hollis: It's right in line with Mystic River's wide release number. I'm sure that they're hoping for a slow expansion with word-of-mouth building, but the trouble on this one is, it's a hard sell. With a real war going on and the bloodiest month ever in Iraq, this sort of thing is not something people are going to rush out to see.
Reagen Sulewski: This is a pretty troubling number for a film starting out in wide release. It's a long way to go for it to still be around when awards are being handed out.
Joel Corcoran: I think Flags of Our Fathers is one of those "we'll have to wait and see," movies. The strategy behind it seems more focused on getting awards buzz than a box office hit right off the bat. If it does get some recognition, it could have considerable staying power. I think Warner Bros. should be cautiously optimistic, though not entirely satisfied. At least not yet.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, Warner Bros. all but stated that they were simply hoping to build momentum here early last week. It's tough for a film when you don't have a big-name star on whom you can hang your hat.
Tim Briody: It had some odd advertising, including a commercial of Clint Eastwood just talking about it. I'd rather see scenes from the movie.
Kim Hollis: I really don't think any of this weekend's movies were particularly well marketed, to be honest.
David Mumpower: The other negative aspect going against opening weekend is that it doesn't exactly skew young. The demographic that carries movie box office these days mainly sees World War II as an X-Box Live activity.
Joel Corcoran: You bring up a good point, Tim. The advertising behind this movie seems rather unfocused. The commercials have some good action shots and battle scenes, but it doesn't seem like the typical action-based war film. But then again, the marketing isn't casting it as a character-driven drama set in the context of war and conflict, either.
Kim Hollis: From what I understand (I haven't seen it), it's *not* an action-based war film. It's a reflective "now they are home and famous" movie.
David Mumpower: I look forward to tracking the performance of Letters from Iwo Jima, the de facto sequel that tells the same story from the Japanese point of view. This is something new in the industry, and I am always excited by that.
Joel Corcoran: That's what I was expecting, Kim. I haven't seen it either, but it seems like Clint Eastwood is doing something along the lines of what he did in Million Dollar Baby. That was a film set in the world of boxing that actually had very little to do with boxing. It seems like Flags of Our Fathers is set in the time somewhere around V-J Day, but actually has little to do with the war itself.
Coming soon to a theater near you - Tawny: Barbie's Horse - The Movie
Kim Hollis: Flicka, the latest girl-and-her-horse movie, earned an estimated $7.7 million. Is this about what you expected for the Fox film?
Reagen Sulewski: It's slightly better. This seems like such a tired subject.
Tim Briody: No wonder it was a lousy week at the box office, I'm fighting to stay awake here trying to just discuss the new releases this week.
David Mumpower: I see this entire genre as Barbie movies, so take what I say with a grain of salt but... Seriously, haven't we seen enough of these for two or three years? We don't need one of these every six months, do we?
Tim Briody: I do wonder how much of the audience even realized it was an update/remake.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I think we've had more than enough horse movies for a while. And I include the Seabiscuit type of stuff in that as well.
Reagen Sulewski: And how long is Alison Lohman going to play a teenager. She's 27!
Kim Hollis: Well, she wasn't very good at playing a grown-up at Where the Truth Lies.
David Mumpower: At this rate, she's skipping straight from teenager to grandmother roles.
Mmmm...cake
Kim Hollis: Sofia Coppola's follow-up to BOP fave Lost in Translation, Marie Antoinette, earned $5.3 million from 859 venues, a per location average of $6,170. This is the second-best per venue average in the top ten. Should Sony be satisfied with this debut?
Joel Corcoran: I think Sony should be very satisfied with this debut. It's a solid performance that should generate enough interest for a wider release.
Reagen Sulewski: Considering how polarizing this film appears to be, I'd say that's an excellent start. A complete flop wouldn't have been shocking.
Kim Hollis: I think they were really testing the waters with this release. It had such vitriolic buzz at Cannes, but closer to release, its reviews have turned the tide to the positive side. Playing it on just a few venues, they could see if it drew enough people to break out long-term.
Reagen Sulewski: It's such an odd looking film. The anachronistic style is going to make this a no go for a lot of people right off the bat.
Joel Corcoran: I think you've got it, Reagen. It's kind of like Baz Luhrman's Romeo + Juliet from a decade ago.
David Mumpower: That's it exactly. I found the incongruity off-putting though I know some people who really liked it.
Joel Corcoran: Put me down as someone who really likes it...if it's done well.
Oogie Boogie's gonna pay you a visit if you don't see this film
Kim Hollis: The Nightmare Before Christmas 3-D earned $3.2 million and had a $19,643 per venue average. Does this surprise you?
Reagen Sulewski: That's a shocking result to me. This is a film that's over a decade old and whose fans pretty much all have it on DVD.
Tim Briody: I didn't even know it was re-released until I saw the Friday numbers.
Kim Hollis: This was about what I expected for it. 3-D movies are a blast, and when they're widely available like this one was (i.e. not just on IMAX), they can really draw people in. I even noted when I did the write-up that goth types and long-time fans of the film were likely to make it a hit.
David Mumpower: I know some people are surprised by this result, but I am not at all. 3-D is the only truly unique cinema experience in the industry today. Any time a movie loads up on IMAX exhibitions, it is going to do well. Superman Returns used this methodology to gut out an undeserved $200 million.
Joel Corcoran: Nightmare Before Christmas isn't quite a cult film, but it has a strong fanbase. I'm a little surprised at the per-venue average, though. The theaters must've been packed to the gills.
Kim Hollis: It was only available at 168 venues. Speaking from experience, when films are available in 3-D, the theaters are usually really full.
Tim Briody: I'm a little disappointed it didn't make the weekend top ten, meaning The Marine actually sticks around for a second weekend.
Kim Hollis: I think the estimate for The Marine is...dubious.
David Mumpower: They found $1.2 million in their couch. It happens.
Reagen Sulewski: It's real, just like WWE is an unscripted sporting event.
This grudge isn't worthy of note
Kim Hollis: The only notable holdover was The Grudge 2, which fell 63% to $7.7 million. Are you surprised by the precipitous drop?
Reagen Sulewski: Not in the slightest. This was a Dead Film Walking.
Tim Briody At least it's not a factor for Saw III next weekend.
Joel Corcoran: Not really, no. I just don't think this type of horror film is popular anymore.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I expect Saw III to just run away with the month.
David Mumpower: I am going to disagree with Reagen a bit here. I knew it would have a big drop, but I didn't expect 63%. That's a bushwhacking. As we approach Halloween, I figured it would keep at least some semblance of its appeal. The terrible internal multiplier last weekend was a reflection that everyone who wanted to see it did so on day one.
Reagen Sulewski: Well that's just it. It made *one-third* on its first Sunday what it made on its first Friday. Those are "someone called in a bomb threat" numbers.
David Mumpower: I placed too much faith in the appeal of late October horror. The Grudge 2 is circling into huge disappointment territory now.
Joel Corcoran: I just never expected it to do as well as it did last weekend. That was the surprising aspect, to me.
Kim Hollis: Oh, it's horrifying, all right. To Sony.