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Peter, Shrek and Jack, we like you. We just think we should take a break for awhile. It's not you, it's us.

Kim Hollis: Let's address the elephant in the living room. Are Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End all examples of a strange new box office model where the first weekend is everything, or are this films' legs curbed by the fact that for whatever reason, they weren't perceived to be as good as previous releases in the various franchises?

Reagen Sulewski: I don't think studios are all that upset about earning money faster, since they take a bigger piece of the pie that way, but in terms of long term management of their franchises, it has to be troubling, especially since that seems to be all they've got lately. I mean, unless Space Mountain somehow spawns five hit films.

Kim Hollis: I think that it's a combination of both things. It's a shift in audience behavior, but the movies are also suffering because of poor word-of-mouth. I've talked to several people who have said, "Oh, Pirates isn't supposed to be good. We'll just wait for video."

David Mumpower: This is an answer I'm not sure we can solve with any finality at the moment. There are arguments both ways. It's entirely possible that the unique nature of May's heavyweight releases created some "blockbuster fatigue" for consumers. It's equally possible that consumers agree with critics that all three are not up to snuff.

Joel Corcoran: I think that's a good point, David. I'm not sure there is enough information available to really find a reason for the sharp drops. For lack of a better analogy, I think we're looking at some bad symptoms of some underlying disease.

Kim Hollis: It really isn't an easy task to get a family out to three movies in a month. And these movies all really rely on that type of business. People are having to pick and choose here where in the past each one of these franchise has had many weeks to dominate on its own.

Reagen Sulewski: It does seem like a tremendous test of audiences. That's a lot of time and/or money they're asking people to spend in one month. Seeing more than one is probably unusual behavior for the general population. Just imagine if there had been *anything* from April holding over.

Kim Hollis: Or *any* quality releases (beyond the big three) in May.

David Mumpower: In hindsight, I think that all three movies' distributors would agree that this was an experiment that probably should not be duplicated. The problem is that Shrek couldn't move due to the presence of a Pixar release and a Potter film while Pirates and Spider-Man had Transformers to contend with. The real winner in all of this is 300 for getting out in front of the hoopla.

Joel Corcoran: Absolutely. Perhaps the producers behind 300 were prescient.

Spiders and ogres and pirates. Oh my!

Kim Hollis: Do you think any of the three titles would have done better if moved to a different period on the summer schedule?

David Mumpower: As I said before, I think Shrek would have been lucky to stay even. Spider-Man's had better luck in May than July, so it probably is a similar situation. Pirates on the other hand, is one that Disney might like to have back. It's going to be a $300 million earner in North America, but I do suspect that slotting it in the same spot as the last title would have been helpful. I can't help but feel that Transformers would have blinked.

Tim Briody: Pirates just seemed out of its element over Memorial Day weekend. Shrek at least had the same weekend for all three films, and Spider-Man 3 went back to the release of the original Spider-Man, so those were natural release dates.

Kim Hollis: I do think Pirates would have been better off in its normal month of July. Of all the movies that suffered, I think it got hit the hardest by A) people getting burned by quality and B) spending entertainment budget for the month on other things. I believe Potter usurping that July spot really mucked with the plans.

Reagen Sulewski: I agree. I think Pirates is really the only one that could or should have moved.

Kim Hollis: Another thought (that I touched on before but will expand on now) is that if Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third had been "better" films, Pirates would have been better off in the same release date spot.

David Mumpower: That's the aspect that is impossible to quantify, Kim. I'm with you in that I'm curious about how much causality is involved there. Were consumers burned twice already in May and therefore less willing to risk being burned again by Pirates? I could buy that, but I have no hard evidence to back it up.

Joel Corcoran: I have the same instinct as David. I just get the sense that audiences are more willing to go to the movies compared to the past, but they have very little tolerance for movies that disappoint them.

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