Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
November 6, 2007
Watch out. Here comes Fred Claus.Kim Hollis: Do you think American Gangster's opening is going to be the biggest one for the rest of 2007?
Joel Corcoran: I'm going to have to say "unfortunately, no." I think the biggest opening in the last two months of 2007 will be National Treasure: The Book of Secrets. And I hate saying that. The Golden Compass has an outside chance to have a bigger opening than National Treasure, but I'm not very optimistic about that happening.
Dan Krovich: No. In addition to the National Treasure sequel, there's I am Legend and I even think Fred Claus could challenge the number.
David Mumpower: I disagree with Joel about The Golden Compass, a movie I believe will do solid numbers over time. As a December release, its opening weekend will be negatively impacted, so I will be surprised if it opens to what would be Lord of the Rings numbers. Fred Claus is a coin flip to match/surpass this in my estimation while National Treasure: Book of Secrets and I Am Legend strike me as mortal locks to beat it. So, my answer is no though it will be on the short list of biggest non-summer openers in 2007.What do you want, a prize?Kim Hollis: Does American Gangster's opening automatically move it to the top of the list of contenders for the Academy Award?
Joel Corcoran: I think so. It's a solid, serious film with a "socially meaningful" story backed by a talented cast and crew of Oscar winners. In that respect, it's in a very similar position as The Departed was in the fall of 2006, though American Gangster had a much bigger box office take on opening weekend - The Departed pulled in only $26.8 million when it opened, after all.
Dan Krovich: It already had a good bit going for it with two Oscar winners in the leads and a multi nominated director, but I think this opening definitely solidifies it.
David Mumpower: Short answer: yes. Long answer: In a year where so many potential awards season contenders have been out and out busts financially, it does seem as if a movie with the pedigree of American Gangster and the financial success of a blockbuster is a strong contender for several major awards. With such a dearth of acceptable candidates so far, this one has to be the leader in the clubhouse, even if it is being dismissed by some as a The Departed clone.
We've had movies this year about rats and bees. What's next, an amoeba?Kim Hollis: Bee Movie opened to an estimated $39.1 million. What do you think of the performance?
Joel Corcoran: That's about five million dollars per year that Jerry Seinfeld has been hyping this movie.
Tony Kollath: .....and about a dollar for every "TV Junior" that NBC showed during the last 2 weeks.
Dan Krovich: It seems like a "wait and see" number. It could hold through Thanksgiving and play through the holidays, or it could be out of theaters by mid December.
David Mumpower: I believe everyone else is being too polite here. We were hyper-critical of Over the Hedge, the last DreamWorks movie to open in this range. Its $38.5 million start was less problematic as it went on to earn $155.0 million domestically. I don't expect Bee Movie to have that sort of appeal since its reviews are politely blah. It has been hyped to death on NBC as they have cross-promoted it to death with their old pal, Seinfeld, yet that didn't translate to anything more than a lower-than-average opening weekend for the title. Clearly, saturation has set in for the genre, as was demonstrated with even Pixar's latest release, but DreamWorks can't possibly be happy with this result.
Calvin Trager: The movie's premise obviously put people off. A bee that sues a human? That's funny? That's supposed to be funny? That's what passes for comedy these days? What kind of person would come up with an idea like that in the first place? Who ARE are these PEOPLE!?
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