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Why Is There Always a Box Office Slump?

Kim Hollis: In addition to its $104.2 million opening weekend domestically, Iron Man earned another $96.7 million internationally, giving it a grand total of $201 million worldwide in its first weekend. Should we take this to mean that the early year box office slump in 2008 is out the window, or do you think that this is just a temporary success that won't change the overall landscape of the industry?

Reagen Sulewski: I think it's easy to read too much into overall trends. I would say it's at least somewhat important to have an early summer trailer hit so that you get eyes on all the trailers for films you want people to see, but quality, or perceived quality, wins out in the end.

Joel Corcoran: I think the unusually dense slate of big-budget blockbusters and sequels coming up this year will pull the 2008 box office out of this early-year slump. We've got five red-hot sequels - like The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, and The X-Files: I Want to Believe - any one of which could set some box office records (and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them set the all-time record for an opening weekend). There is a huge slate of sequels and original films that should be solid releases (like The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor), immensely successful fan-boy films (like Star Wars: The Clone Wars), or that appeal to very devoted fan bases (like Speed Racer, Wall-E, and Pineapple Express). Then there's a number of wild cards that could be breakout hits, such as Tropic Thunder, American Teen and The Accidental Husband.





I doubt 2008 will show a large increase over 2007, but it should be at least slightly better. But without this unusual number of tentpole releases and sequels, I'm sure we'd see this slump continue over the entire year.

Kim Hollis: Since revenue is down just under 3% compared to last year, I don't think there's anything to be overly alarmed about anyway. We do have a huge slate of films coming this summer and I think they have a shot at outperforming last year. And with regard to Joel's comments on potential breakouts, I'll be surprised if American Teen makes more than $5 million and The Accidental Husband (and I say that with much love for Colin Firth and Jeffrey Dean Morgan) more than $30 million, so I wouldn't put much consideration in them for the overall summer performance.

David Mumpower: I am clearly in the minority here. I see the summer box office campaign as likely to consistently fall behind last year's pace, given the dramatic difference in appeal between the titles then versus now. Even Iron Man's $100 million opening falls $50 million shy of Spider-Man 3's opening in the same slot last year.

Pete Kilmer: I really can't figure this summer out in comparison to last year. This year we've had Iron Man. Coming up, we have Indiana Jones, Hulk, Hancock, Batman, The Mummy, Star Wars: The Clone Wars (barely makes this list for me but may surprise people) - all films I think are locks for a big money opening. Then we have Wanted, X-Files, WALL-E, Kung Fu Panda, Get Smart - movies that I think have the potential to do really well. Will they movies make up for the box office downturn that may hit? I'm not sure...and I really don't think Love Guru or Zohan are gonna be that huge, either. Tough call.

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