Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 19, 2008
$200 million buys a lot of fauns.
Kim Hollis: As we mentioned here a couple of weeks ago, Prince Caspian's budget is in excess of $200 million. The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe earned $291.7 domestically. What odds would you give that Prince Caspian can even manage $200 million, a number that would not put it in the black, at this point?
David Mumpower: Before answering, I would like to point out that a key aspect here is that international receipts are why Walden Media was comfortable with a production budget in excess of $200 million. 60% of the first Narnia's money came from overseas receipts. So, it's not just about what the film makes domestically. This is important because based on what we have seen of demand so far for the project, it ain't making $200 million. In fact, I'm not ceding $150 million at this point. The first film's legs were dramatically boosted by being a Christian allegory released near Christmas. So, it had the dual benefits of being a December release with a holiday-appropriate theme. Prince Caspian is not going to have that sort of holdover. I only give it a 10% chance of making $200 million, and that "optimism" may be out the window by this time next week.
Reagen Sulewski: Why I'm more comfortable with that figure than you are is that it's the top kids film out during Memorial Day Weekend. Yeah, Indy's going to rule over all by a ridiculous margin, but we've seen in the past that multiple films can do well here because people have the free time to see their second choice at some point.
Kim Hollis: It is fortunate to have Memorial Day Weekend as its second frame, but it's going to fall off very quickly after that as more family-appropriate films like Kung Fu Panda arrive. I think it's going to finish somewhere around $160-170 million.
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