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Have you gotten your stimulus check yet?

Kim Hollis: After Iron Man had spectacular success the first week of May, we've had two films whose production budgets are roughly equivalent to the gross national product of Austria fail at the box office. Do you believe this is caused by the economy's recession or will things be back to normal with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull next week?

David Mumpower: I believe both, at least to an extent. I absolutely believe we will be back on track after Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull. That will give us two $100+ million budgeted productions that are hits and two that are disappointments/bombs in May. The concern I have is that we have already chronicled on many occasions the changing dynamic of movie revenue. In the past, the argument has always been that films are recession-proof. There is historical data to support this. My current supposition, however, is that the new marketplace climate has altered this fundamental premise about box office. Given the choice between a $20 Netflix/Blockbuster account or seeing a substandard title in theaters, the balance has tipped to the home video side. The equation we had for 70 years has been altered, meaning that movie marketers need to work that much harder to get consumers out of their homes. The recession will impact summer box office. I know that's a minority opinion, but I feel pretty comfortable in making that statement.

Shane Jenkins: I agree with David. I think that those consumers, who in years past might have seen nearly all of the summer's offerings, will be forced to be more choosy how they spend their gas and admission money this year, and will pick just the few movies they most want to see. I suspect this is good news for Indy and Batman, and probably less so for, say, X-Files 2.

Reagen Sulewski: Being in Canada, I don't feel as qualified to talk about your country's economic situation, but I will note that it's starting to bother me more to spend $12.50 on a film that's just "meh".

Kim Hollis: I think families in particular are going to be very choosy about where they spend their dollars. With gas prices causing a real trickle down effect to food and other necessities, movies and other frivolities have to be carefully considered. If you're a family of four and you assume the kids are going to want concessions, a day at the movies will cost upwards of $50 or more. People aren't going to be willing to spend that money on something that risks being sub-par (i.e. Speed Racer and to a lesser degree Prince Caspian). Instead, they're going carefully select what movies are worth that kind of expenditure. Iron Man had a masterful marketing campaign and was well-reviewed before release, and Indiana Jones is a true event picture. Other than that, I'm not sure what else will qualify as a major family release this summer until WALL-E. The Dark Knight is a movie that is awfully dark looking for kids.

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