Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 27, 2008
Joel Corcoran: Ordinarily, I'd be pessimistic about the chances of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull hitting the $300 million mark. The mixed reviews and a prevalent opinion that the script was "Lucasinized" far too much give it shaky legs from the get go. But I think Tim has a good point about the timing of the movie. Sex and The City is going to dominate the female audience (and let's not forget the gay and lesbian audience, too), so Indiana Jones and Iron Man will benefit from the "anything-but-Sex-and-the-City" crowd. Though I still think the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will fall just short of $300 million at the box office.
David Parker: Indy should end up just past At World's End with about $315 million. It has a lower three-day weekend total, but should have better legs. The 20-year layoff nostalgia factor will play into that. The more interesting thing to me is if Iron Man will make more than Indy. With every sub 40% drop that Iron Man gets, the greater its chances are that it becomes the summer box office champion. That is unless Dark Knight becomes the blockbuster the 1989 Batman was.
Max Braden: If it has legs, it will have to rely on the pre-teen audience. I can't imagine the nostalgic audience supporting the movie long enough with the moderate reviews it's receiving. I expect a big dropoff at the third weekend and beyond, ultimately grossing less than Iron Man and The Dark Knight.
Kevin Chen: It's not teens who are clamoring to see Indiana Jones, it's their parents, and that's a demographic which increasingly either waits until after opening weekend or catches the release on DVD. I expect that behavior to be magnified due to people being away on the holiday weekend, unless the gas prices kept people from traveling.
David Mumpower: I will deeply surprised if it has poor legs. The film's behavior to date emphatically indicates that it is not front-loaded. The only question is whether the body of the people who were willing to go out to see it did so during the holiday period. The last couple of major Memorial Day releases, X-Men: The Last Stand and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End behaved in such a fashion. That's a concern, but I am of the opinion that even 20 years later, Indiana Jones is special, meaning its box office behavior should be trend-proof.
Kim Hollis: I do think it's the nature of movies that open this large to have some significant drop-off in their second weekend whether they're great or not and whether they are family driven films or not. I wouldn't judge it by its numbers next weekend, but rather by how well it holds up in weekend three.
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