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"Investment means you're purchasing something, and somebody has to make that which you purchase and sell that which you purchase. And that's how the economy works." -- George W. Bush, Hudson, Wisconsin, Aug. 18, 2004

Kim Hollis: W. earned $10.6 million during its opening weekend. What should Lionsgate take from this debut?

David Mumpower: W. is one of those wild card releases where box office predictions are all over the place. Few of the ones I saw slotted the film in double digits, nor did the tracking data. Reagen Sulewski, who can't come to the phone right now because he's too hung over from his bachelor party last night, had a pretty good read on it with his $9.5 million prediction. In the end, I think he accurately evaluated the title with his description that this is a "movie without an audience". For a $25 million production that will have a fair amount of historical appeal on home video, this feels like a win.

Brandon Scott: Does this speak to the real W's approval rating? Perhaps. Stone is a Hollywood pariah almost and can certainly be box office poison. Couple that with an unpopular subject. I guess it's a fair result looking at it that way.

Reagen Sulewski: I thought a drunken bachelor party would be a good tribute for W's opening weekend. Yeah, that's the ticket...

Kim Hollis: I think it was a tough sell no matter what. Conservatives who voted for W. weren't going to come out for this, because it looked like their guy was being poked fun at. Liberals who have endured eight years of his policies probably didn't really need a reminder of what he is to them. With that said, I do think it was marketed as well as it could have been. I was watching a lot of CNN last week and I legitimately think I saw 2,000 commercials. Okay, maybe it just feels like 2,000, but if we were measuring box office based on the quantity of ads I saw, W. would have made $75 million.

Jason Lee: I 100% agree with Kim. If I were to post anything, I'd just re-copy what she said.

Did you know that I Executive Produce Entourage?

Kim Hollis: Since 2003's The Italian Job, this is the seventh Mark Wahlberg film out of eight to open to at least $14.5 million. Is it fair to call Wahlberg a box office draw?

David Mumpower: We had casually discussed this a few months ago upon the surprising $30 million debut of The Happening. I said at the time that Max Payne would be a good opportunity to re-evaluate the situation. Honestly, it's not. I don't think the success of this title is any more indicative of Wahlberg's appeal than The Happening, a film specifically marketed under the M. Night Shyamalan umbrella. Max Payne's trailers sold a John Woo-flavored action film rather than a Mark Wahlberg film. At the risk of making Marky Mark want to crack my beautiful nose, I believe We Own the Night and Shooter best reflect what he means to a movie, which is low teens box office. If the concept is a bit better such as Invincible, that can bump to the upper teens and if he does something with a better cast like Four Brothers, he can sneak into the twenties. Anything more than that in terms of box office would require the mafia, intelligent apes or a capsized boa.

Brandon Scott: Having not seen this question ahead of time, I kind of examined this previously. He is not a guy who can generate a really large opening, but is he is a star? Sure. I honestly don't know why he isn't a bigger one, though. A guy with reasonable acting range, some tolerable film choices, a body cut from stone (hey, man...it is what it is, the guy is in shape), and he seems to be a decent guy off screen. Sometimes these things just don't add up, but on the flipside, he has been at it for a while now, and let's be honest, who would have thought that he would be here a decade in, considering where he came from? Not many, myself included to be sure. My hats off to the chap.





Reagen Sulewski: I'm still bitter about losing that prop bet over who would be nominated for an Oscar first, him, or MC Hammer.

Pete Kilmer: I think he and Leo DiCaprio (who we just talked about last week) fall into the same category. Really solid (and in some movies damn good) actors who don't always open to huge box office but wind up in massive movies at times. People know who Wahlberg is and unlike a lot of guys who started in movies around the time he did, he's going to be working for years and years and years if he wants to.

Kim Hollis: I think he's reliable and makes a lot of good choices in scripts (The Happening notwithstanding). He never pigeonholes himself into any particular type of role. I'm not sure that this means he's a draw, but I do think that his name does add something to a project.

Jason Lee: Frankly, I think that his opening weekend success is as much due to the project as it is to Wahlberg's own appeal. He's smart about what he attaches himself to and never strays too far from his strengths as an actor.

Doom. DOOM!

Kim Hollis: Do you believe the recent financial crisis and impending election aided or harmed W.?

David Mumpower: I think the unprecedented financial collapse aided the film to a degree if for no other reason than the "trillion dollar mistake" tagline recently added. That was an opportunistic ad campaign that drove home the idea that this Oliver Stone presentation would portray him harshly despite the director's assertion it would not be a polemic. Even so, I think we're only talking about a few million dollars of difference over the movie's entire domestic run. Foreign receipts, on the other hand, will paint a much more interesting picture.

Brandon Scott: Yeah, my feelings are that the financial situation isn't helping any film in the end. As for the election, I think it couldn't hurt the box office. Its as good a time to release a title like this as any. Now would an Obama movie have done double the business? Probably.

Kim Hollis: I think the movie was set up for success about as much as it possibly could be. Lots of people are thinking of Bush in the same way the ads seemed to portray him, and the political situation has both Republicans and Democrats running from the guy and totally blaming him for our current crises. I think without the election/financial situation, this would have been best served to open as a limited release, honestly.

Jason Lee: I just don't think anyone wants to talk or hear or watch anything about W. anymore. Period. We need a new fish to fry.

Pete Kilmer: After eight years of squandered hope and oppurtunity to do truly positive things, I think people are just done with him. I know I am.

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