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The writers' strike has wreaked some havoc on awards season, for sure

Kim Hollis: Changeling expanded to 1,850 venues this week and wound up with $9.4 million. Is this a good enough result to keep its end of year awards candidacy alive?

Brandon Scott: No. Although I wouldn't think that the box office business it does is crucial to this effort. Reviews were too mixed and early word is that this is Clint's least effective directorial effort in recent years. Since he has another movie coming out before year's end, I say bring on Gran Torino!

Kim Hollis: It's good enough to keep Angelina Jolie's awards hopes alive, but nothing else. People always seem to forget that the actress category frequently reaches to find candidates, and she's one the Academy will like to reward. Reviews and box office don't even necessarily matter.

David Mumpower: Given that its box office is probably going to fall somewhere between Letters from Iwo Jima and Flags of Our Fathers, I think we all would agree that it is a relatively disappointing result for an Angelina Jolie film. There is clearly a line of demarcation her action movie fans see with her independent work. They don't want to see her justify her Academy Award. They just want to sexualize her while blows stuff up. For the life of me, I cannot decide if that's a problem for her or not.

Saw will return to torture another day

Kim Hollis: Saw V fell 66% to $10.1 million this weekend. Do you believe this is the end of the line for the franchise or do you expect us to be having the same conversation next year?

Pete Kilmer: For what these things cost compared to what the make internationally and on DVD, we'll be back here next year. Though I think next year is the make-or-break year for the franchise, I heard from a lot of people who didn't like last year's and this year's edition of the movie.

Brandon Scott: Yeah, it's definitely in wind-down mode. How long can these really go? Saw VI, VII, VIII all in theaters? I am not so sure. I can see them getting to X with the straight-to-DVD model, but their theater releasing run has to be dwindling. I think there is a chance for one more, as we must bear in mind it did $32 million last weekend. That's still a big opening weekend number and a sure money maker with V currently at $45 million here vs. its $11 million budget. But this can't go on forever. Something new has to come into place.





Sean Collier: Depending on which horror fansites you believe, Saw VI already has a director and elements of a plot. (I mean, they all barely had anything more than elements of a plot, so they're about done, as far as I can tell.) And, seriously, we're coming up on Jason Voorhees' 12th trip to the box office. Mark my words, Saw X will have a theatrical release.

Kim Hollis: I think it's back next year. These movies keep right on being profitable and they continue to leave doors open for sequels. I would have to think interest would have to drop down to around a $10 million opening before they'll stop with the sequels. They're a license to print money and I'm sure Lionsgate likes money.

David Mumpower: I interpret the question as being done in the short term or not rather than being done forever. We all know that at some point in the next ten years, there will be another Saw title. The question as I see it is whether there will/should be one in the next two years. I am of the opinion that this franchise needs to take a break and come back with some new and original ideas, but Lionsgate's CFO probably disagrees with me.

Hooray for November!

Kim Hollis: The next three weekends see openings from Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, Quantum of Solace, and Twilight. Rank these three films in terms of their expected opening weekends.

Pete Kilmer:

1. Quantum of Solace
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
3. Twilight

Though I think Madagascar and Twilight could flip positions.

Brandon Scott: I'm not sure what the number of theaters are for each. With word coming in that Quantum just smashed opening day records for the region in the UK, I suspect it to be big here. I can't imagine Twilight being the next Harry Potter, though green-lighting a second movie prior to this one even being released makes you wonder what it can do. I would suspect these to fall as Quantum first, Madagascar second and Twilight third, though again, consider me in the dark about Twilight as when I first saw the trailer I turned to my companion in the theater and said, what the (blank) is this? Completely cheesy. But then I was informed of the supposed popularity of the books, so I consider Twilight to be the wild card here.

Sean Collier: In a just world, I'd put Quantum first...but I'm calling Madagascar the big winner here. I expect Twilight to finish with a huge number thanks to a long run, and Quantum to have a big couple of weekends, but the kiddies will be out in force for Generic Talking Animal Cartoon #1850B.

Kim Hollis: I think Madagascar makes about $60 million, Quantum of Solace makes $55 million and Twilight makes $45 million. That's a good few weekends.

Marty Doskins: I'll say Madagascar gets $55 million and Quantum of Solace gets $52 million. However, I'm still not convinced about Twilight. Everyone (myself included) seems to overestimate the attraction of the latest young adult book-to-movie adaptation. Maybe this will be the one to prove me wrong, but I'm off this genre's bandwagon for now.

David Mumpower: I feel comfortable saying that we are going to have three straight weekends of $40+ million openings, which is a pretty spectacular November if it happens. I see Quantum of Solace as being the biggest opener, the Madagascar sequel being the second biggest (but still over $50 million) and Twilight a massive hit relative to budget with a mid-$40s debut. In the long run, I expect Madagascar 2 to be the most successful title in title in terms of domestic revenue. Given what has happened with The Dark Knight, however, I am no longer as certain of this as I would have been six months ago. I believe strongly in the idea that movies buy a line of credit for their sequels through the quality of the current outing. Batman Begins (plus the introduction of The Joker) bought The Dark Knight's larger success in the same way that Spider-Man 2's quality hugely impacted Spider-Man 3's debut. If this line of thinking is sound, Casino Royale's impeccable quality could secure a mega-launch for Quantum of Solace, lousy title notwithstanding.

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