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A sequel has already been greenlighted

Kim Hollis: Do you expect later films in the franchise to match/exceed Twilight's performance, or do you think it will follow the Prince Caspian model instead?

Brandon Scott: It's difficult to say with this having been out only a few days. I don't know if they are comparable films or series, either. This had a $37 million budget. I think Prince Caspian was $180 million or something? No doubt the sequel budget will increase and I suspect awareness of the franchise will only grow based on this films success. My early prognosis is that it's too early to tell, since we don't know yet where Twilight will end up.

Eric Hughes: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say it only goes up from here (or at the very least will bank about the same amount of money per release like Harry Potter). Whereas the Chronicles of Narnia movies are based on a series of books from the 1950s, the Twilight saga is IN right now. No question. Plus, the franchise has Robert Pattinson, who I'm told causes just about every teen girl to go weak at the knees.

Max Braden: I'd be tempted to compare sequel prospects to Book of Shadows which didn't even gross as much as Blair Witch's first wide weekend, but Twilight's fans are certainly more locked in on the characters than some plot stunt. I think the Prince Caspian audience had no foundation on the original books, so when the first movie failed to sink in, response to the second was simply based on eye candy. I'll go with the Bridget Jones model. 20% drop for the first weekend comparison, 40% drop in total gross.

Jim Van Nest - Max, I think you're way off on this one. I say the second film blows this one away. From everything I'm hearing, the fans LOVED this movie. The main characters were "perfect" and they stayed true to the novel, is what I've been told. Mix in a larger budget - because let's face it, this looked like a bad CW series from the trailer - and I think we have a potential $90-100 million opener next time out. Also, how many new fans will the series have due to the success of the first film? I'm guessing a lot. Finally, with $69 million in mid-November, they'd be crazy not to make the sequel a summer tent-pole.

Kevin Chen: While it's clear that Kim is trying to be frame the question for debate, The Chronicles of Narnia films are a poorer analogy than the more obvious Harry Potter. Eric's answer is probably closest to the truth. Meyer's books are popular and in the minds of (at least some) people right now. The relative failure of Prince Caspian compared to The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe probably owes to the audience's hazy memories at best of the sequel's plot, let alone its title (and terrible marketing, a fate which Twilight does not share).





Reagen Sulewski: I'm not sure you're going to expand the fan base too much from here - those that aren't already sold are openly mocking the project (yo!). It's pretty black and white on this one. You'll probably get at least one more film to open to this level, but I think it'll start to fade a bit after that. They'd be well served to accelerate that 2010 release date on the next film.

Les Winan: Prince Caspian was also seriously lacking mall appearences with shrieking girls.

Jason Lee: I agree with Max on the Bridget Jones model. I know that I was not an early believer in this film and I know that I could easily be wrong on this again, but I think that one of the things that helped sustain the Harry Potter franchise is the fact that there were still new books coming out as the films were released. Ticket sales and massive book sales fed off each other's momentum and helped turn it into this global phenomenon.

I can't help but feel like this fanbase has nothing to do, no reason to stay together, no reason to say interested until the next film comes out. This is almost as if you'd released the Harry Potter Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone film just after the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows book was released.

Kim Hollis: I have to agree that it's going to lose some momentum here. As Jason mentions, since all of the books have theoretically been released, there's nothing to sustain long-term interest like there is with the Potter films. And even with the continued releases of the books, those movies have seen declines in opening weekends. I see no reason that Twilight would perform any differently.

David Mumpower: I agree with Reagen's evaluation that the next film probably does similarly to this one. After that, the fad will start to die in the same way we've seen recently with High School Musical 3. I don't see this franchise as on the upswing indefinitely. Kevin's point is well taken in that Prince Caspian was a much tougher sell than New Moon will be, but I don't see fans of the franchise being as passionate about the movies three years from now. (My email address isn't being published with this, is it?)

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