Weekend Forecast for March 27-29, 2009
By Reagen Sulewski
March 27, 2009
Former WWE wrestler John Cena stars in 12 Rounds, the final new wide release this weekend. Directed by Renny Harlin (and how far has he fallen?) and sharing a producer with Speed, the film has Cena as a cop whose girlfriend (Ashley Scott) is kidnapped by someone whom he once put in jail. To get her back, he's made to go through a dozen different tests, all designed to kill him before he can complete them.
Sort of a hybrid of Speed and Die Hard, 12 Rounds is kind of a throwback to the kind of gimmicky action films they made in the 1990s. With a better known lead actor, I'd probably give this a decent chance of breaking out, but I think we're pretty limited here. Cena's first film, The Marine, actually did better than one might expect, opening to $7 million, but his acting seems to redefine wooden. This film feels like a make-or-break moment for Cena, and will tell if he can break into the Jason Statham range, or whether he's doomed to low budget and/or Cinemax fare. I see a little jump to about $9 million, but that's probably not enough to make the difference for his career.
Last week's number one film was Knowing, a two-hour money shot fest starring Nicolas Cage. At $24 million, this was a rare Nic Cage film that wasn't feast or famine, but rather, sort of average on its opening weekend. Word-of-mouth is sort of mixed, which is as good as saying it's going to see a pretty big drop off this weekend. It should come in with about $13 million for its second frame.
I Love You, Man, has some decent chance for legs as a comedy, though that's always kind of a dice roll. The Paul Rudd/Jason Segel film about male bonding opened to close to $18 million, which is sort of the standard figure for both of those actors' films these days. Although not actually an Apatow-crew film, it shares much of the same sensibilities and actors, and could act the same. This means about a $60-70 million total, which would be backed up by an $11 million second weekend.
Duplicity was a mild disappointment for some with a $14 million opening weekend. More is generally thought of for a Julia Roberts film, but that's also more for romantic comedies. Clive Owen continues to be something of a non-factor in box office, and is a puzzling Russell Crowe-like polarizing figure. With mostly positive, but not effusive word-of-mouth, it shouldn't fall off too badly, but this caper film's fate is basically set. Give it $8 million this weekend.
Following that is Race to Witch Mountain, which didn't hold well in its first weekend, falling almost 50%. It gets no break this weekend with Monsters vs. Aliens going against it, though some bounce back seems likely. Give it $7 million this weekend, bringing it up to $55 million total.
Finally, Watchmen exits the top five this weekend after three weeks, and just now nudging over the $100 million mark after opening with $55 million. The challenging comic film never truly won over any audiences besides the already committed, though given the difficulty in selling this film – which contains no recognizable characters and no stars in the cast – the $115 or so million it will end with seems pretty significant.
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Forecast: Weekend of March 27-29, 2009
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Monsters vs. Aliens
|
4,104
|
New
|
48.6
|
|
2
|
Knowing
|
3,337
|
+5
|
13.4
|
|
3
|
The Haunting in Connecticut
|
2,732
|
New
|
13.3
|
|
4
|
I Love You, Man
|
2,717
|
+6
|
11.5
|
|
5
|
12 Rounds
|
2,331
|
New
|
8.9
|
|
6
|
Duplicity
|
2,579
|
+5
|
8.3
|
|
7
|
Race to Witch Mountain
|
3,268
|
+81
|
7.5
|
|
8
|
Taken
|
1,961
|
-700
|
3.0
|
|
9
|
Watchmen
|
2,010
|
-1,500
|
3.0
|
|
10
|
The Last House on the Left
|
2,250
|
-153
|
2.4
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
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