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Jim Van Nest: I'm with Reagen on this one. $85 million. In three days. And this is being called a draw? Considering what a disaster The Last Stand was, I'm surprised Wolverine pulled in this much coin. I think it's a pretty good sized win. Folks are talking about an expected lack of legs and they'll point to Iron Man when they say how pathetic Wolverine performed. But let's break it down, Iron Man had two full weeks with no competition. It made $191 million before Prince Caspian hit and took the #1 slot. Wolverine will get all of seven days before Star Trek comes in to take the #1 spot. Will Wolverine drop like a stone? Of course, and it will likely be a huge drop. But with competition, I don't think that should be a big surprise. I also don't think Iron Man is a very fair comparison for this flick.

Sean Collier: I'm with Reagen and Jim. This one'll be a $100 million movie by the time Star Trek hits - and it might be by the time this column runs. X3 went a long way towards tanking the franchise - a franchise that was already seen as somewhat passe with the coming of more serious comic book flicks in Iron Man and the Batman movies. Furthermore, there isn't much evidence that Jackman could open a film by himself - and, perhaps most importantly, this is NOT the fourth movie. It's a spin-off. Think of it as a side project, which is certainly going to have more limited appeal than a straight sequel. This is definitely a win.

David Mumpower: I am not with Jim, Reagen and Sean on this. $85 million sounds fantastic until we put the performance into perspective. It's only the third largest opening for the franchise, and that's not even adjusting for inflation. Reviews and word-of-mouth for this are terrible albeit still stronger than X-Men: The Last Stand. There is no causal basis for the expectation of legs already. Now consider the trajectory followed by the third X-Men movie. That film had a final multiplier (final domestic box office divided by opening weekend box office) of under 2.2. After a $102 million debut, the film fell to $34.0 million in its second weekend. It earned more on its first day in theaters, $45.1 million, than its second weekend. Titles do not come any more frontloaded than that one, and Wolverine is showing signs of flaming out even faster.

A sub-$30 million weekend is feasible here and a final domestic tally under $170 million (a sub 2.0 final multiplier) wouldn't shock me. Those numbers would barely surpass the original X-Men film's $157.2 million before we adjust for an inflation. Once we do that, X-Men shoots all the way up to $210 million, making Wolverine effectively the first title in the franchise to earn less than $200 million in 2009 ticket pricing terms. For a title with a $150 million budget and negative costs approaching $200 million, that's a disappointing result. Wolverine has behaved similarly to The Scorpion King as a non-sequel that is less welcome to fans than its predecessors. It will have to rely on international receipts to carry the day for it to be firmly in the black as it exits theaters. It feels like a miss to me.

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