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David Mumpower: A point that I think needs to be made here is that only $70 million of this is coming from the under-21 crowd. The splits on New Moon's opening weekend are such that half of the people attending are over 21. Those are the ones that haven't been properly evaluated. The reality is that the difference between New Moon and Twilight is that more adult women went to see it than attended Sex and the City on opening weekend. The Twilight phenomenon has leveled up in terms of pop culture to a point that its target audience is no longer just teen girls. Now, it's a full 51% of the population, and when they sampled Twilight, they liked it. Yes, a Twilight viewing was positive reinforcement for most female consumers. There is your scary thought for the day.

Here's a scary thing to ponder...

Kim Hollis: Do you expect this to be the high point of the Twilight franchise, or do you think that Eclipse and Breaking Dawn will have similar or better performances?

Josh Spiegel: I mentioned this theory to my wife yesterday - I wonder if, at some point between now and June 2010, when Eclipse is slated to come out, there will be the seemingly inevitable Twilight backlash. That may contribute to New Moon being the high point of the series; something else to watch for, obviously, is how well the film does in the next few weeks. By coming out at this time of year, New Moon should make somewhere close to $300 million, if not much more so; however, I'm curious to see if this film has the same weekend-to-overall box office gross as its predecessor did. The word-of-mouth may not be as amazing as the numbers say; my hope is that New Moon is the high point, but you never know.





Sean Collier: It's so over-saturated; it has to fall off soon. I hope? Please? Dear God, please, if there's any mercy left in the world?

Reagen Sulewski: Having read the plot summaries for the next two books, they get a little weird (which to me is saying something). I think this is going to increasingly restrict the audience to the true believers, so we'll probably see a small uptick for Eclipse (situationally dependent, of course) with Breaking Dawn trending down as the norms start realizing they're hanging with the freaks.

Jim Van Nest: I think this one may be the high point, but it has nothing to do with backlash or weird plotlines. Someone said it in part 1 that the height of the books seemed to be between the two films. Unless Meyer churns out a fifth book, or even a related book, I think the interest will start to back off as it is at a feverish pitch that can't possibly be sustained. However, if another book were to come out, it would send this series into the stratosphere...if it isn't there already.

Jason Lee: There's no way in heck the next two movies even comes close to opening as big as New Moon. For one thing, the quality of these movies have never been that high (unlike the Harry Potter franchise, in which I expect the final movie to eclipse the opening weekend, or opening five-day if they start on a Wed, of every other Harry Potter film). Secondly, it will be impossible for Summit Entertainment to maintain the fan base's rabid momentum towards the next film. I agree with Sean here, over-saturation will do them in. Unless Taylor Lautner develops like a 12-pack or something.

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