Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

December 1, 2009

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Jim Van Nest: I'm not going to sit here and pretend like $230 million in 10 days for New Moon doesn't shock the hell out of me. It does. I really didn't think the fan-base was this big and this rabid. Even so...Blind Side actually increasing its take this weekend AND almost knocking New Moon out of the #1 slot is easily a larger story. Especially considering the type of movie Blind Side is. There are no effects, and no brooding vampires. There's only Sandra Bullock with a dye job and a VERY large unknown black kid. There's no way this should be at $100 million in 10 days. No way.

Jason Lee: I'm thrilled with The Blind Side (I'll say it again: Golden Globe nominee for Best Actress in a Drama) but I gotta say, the idea that a mopey vampire story could turn out $230 million in ten days is stunning to me. And scary. And depressing.

Reagen Sulewski: This is not to take anything away from The Blind Side, but New Moon is still the bigger story. It's a transformative leap in a franchise, while The Blind Side is more of a continuation of the renewed Sandra Bullock love-fest. But - ask me again if The Blind Side hits $200 million.




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Max Braden: Right, you don't want to discount the New Moon story. It's like saying "XYZ stock moved only a penny per share on news that its $50 billion quarterly profit met expectations." But The Blind Side is a surprise. I would have been less surprised from this box office behavior had it been a Christmas release still going strong in January, but even then I did not expect this performance based on what the trailer offered. I still don't even know anyone who's seen either New Moon or The Blind Side. I almost feel marginaliz-- nope, the feeling passed.

David Mumpower: What The Blind Side has managed here is probably inimitable. I've been trying to come up with scenarios wherein we see a duplication of this feat over the next few years. It's hard to describe a reasonable one. I would have described closing a $105 million gap from one weekend to the next as a theoretical impossibility up until the past few days. I've seen several stories along the lines of "what's the big deal". Frankly, those demonstrate a lack of understanding of box office behavior these days. It's that simplistic point of view that quality should sell, and we can list any number of great films this year alone that disprove that theory. In the end, what makes The Blind Side special is that it's a guy film that appeals to women because of that strong adoptive mother aspect. We've seen extraordinary box office behavior as a result of the word-of-mouth it has built that is centered upon it being the rarest of rare high quality non-animated family film. Directly addressing the question, my answer is this. Both titles are in the discussion for biggest news story of the year and I think the evaluation of "most impressive" comes down to pre-release expectations for each. New Moon is the more impressive result to me as the significantly more profitable release. It's going to be the second most successful film of 2009 in terms of domestic revenue. The Blind Side is, however, the more surprising result. New Moon always looked like a $300 million movie to me. There was never a moment in time where I believed The Blind Side could make $150 million and I was one of its biggest champions prior to release.


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