Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
January 11, 2010
Matthew Huntley: Yes, they should be quite pleased for two reasons. Not only did the film manage to find a healthy audience amid the still-dominating holiday releases (a $15 million opening in January should be considered healthy regardless, especially for a horror film), but it also garnered some favorable reviews, which can only help its staying power. The movie reportedly cost $21 million to produce, and by the start of its second weekend, it should start to cover some of its P&A costs, so this will likely be a profitable venture for the studio. That's all most studios can hope for so early in the year.
George Rose: Considering the unexpected and unstoppable force that is Avatar, I'd say they should be pleased. Since last year's biggest winter release was Marley & Me, which tapped out under $150 million, there was plenty of room in January for the likes of Gran Torino, Paul Blart and Taken. Each of those also had a well known actor in the lead. This year's biggest holiday movie (and movie of the year) was Avatar, which just flew past $400 million. Both Sherlock Holmes and that pesky Squeakuel have also earned over $150 million. All three films were huge and are still playing strong, which left little room for a no-name cast (sorry, but Ethan Hawke is no Clint Eastwood, Liam Neeson, or even Kevin James) of Twilight-less vampires to cause some paranormal activity. Not this soon after Halloween, New Moon, and Avatar's world domination anyway. A $15 million result is more than decent for this bland looking, poorly timed project. The real question here is: would Gran Torino, Paul Blart and/or Taken have performed as well as they did last year in this current environment? Timing is certainly key to a film's success, but the box office is too unpredictable to properly time anything. However, given the boring trailers I've seen for Daybreakers, I'm not sure even the most competition-free environment would have pushed this over $20 million. The producers should count their blessings, throw a party, and get underway on the direct-to-DVD sequel.
Why was this released in 2010, exactly?Kim Hollis: Leap Year, the latest indistinguishable romantic comedy, earned $9.2 million. Do you think this is more, less, or about what Universal was expecting?
Josh Spiegel: I would say less, though not by much. Despite all the ads I saw, I'm not sure that Universal could have expected a lot more, even with Amy Adams as the star. This is just not a time for a movie that is, as Kim says, indistinguishable from anything else at the multiplex to open. Amy Adams will try again, and hopefully succeed next time, at getting a romantic hit.
Tom Macy: It may be a touch lighter than they were hoping when they first set the date. Amy Adams has become a fairly recognizable fixture at the box office and the similarly panned Bride Wars opened to $20 million this same weekend last year. But those expectations were before Avatar - Holy Crap! Avatar made, oh right sorry - became a box office behemoth along with just about every other film opening in December still going strong. Do you think Universal expected The Blind Side to be still in the picture? This result against a budget of $19 million should be more than satisfying.
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