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Jason Lee: I agree with Daron. If New Moon couldn't get past $300 million, there's no way Eclipse will. Look for Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 to jump the $300 million hurdle, but that's all. But I'm not really concerned with a lack of $300 million+ grossing films. What concerns me more is a lack of films that could top $200 million, which is a total that, for me, signifies that audiences generally had a great time, even if they weren't all-out blockbusters. Since 2005, we've had at least five $200+ million grossing summer films. I think 2010 will struggle to reach that number.

David Mumpower: I agree with Jason across the board. Eclipse is being launched now to capitalize on the heat of the project before it fades. I see it earning less money than New Moon rather than more...and I say that as the only one here who seems to have a handle on those films. Talk to some teen girls, people!

As for the rest of the titles under discussion, June is a month of maybes in my estimation. Other than Toy Story 3, every other major release is not a slam dunk hit. I *think* A-Team and Knight & Day do very well, but there seems to be a lot of general resentment over the mere existence of the former and the latter has that dreaded Cruise missile potentially sabotaging it. Once we get to July, I do expect the situation to improve. Even so, we are seeing exactly the same mistakes as 2005: too many question marks are getting thrown into theaters at once. This creates a perception of negative reinforcement toward movie goers.

In addition, no one is talking about this but I am convinced that Avatar has had a lasting negative impact on the films left in its wake. It raised the bar too high and there has been a pervading sense of disappointment with most of the films since then that have failed to even approach it in terms of visceral experience. This seems to be a hit the industry is going to have to take until everyone else catches up to Cameron on the visual effects curve.

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