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Matthew Huntley: I expect huge drop-offs for HP7 going forward, starting with 55% next weekend (buffered thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday), followed by 60%+ the weekend after and 45-50% from there on out. With mid-week numbers taken into account, I think that would leave it between $300-$320 million in total (as Brett previously pointed out). That's an impressive result, but is it big enough to win the holiday movie crown? I would say yes.

I think we're all in agreement that Tron: Legacy remains a huge wild card. Does anyone outside the Comic-Con crowd have any interest in seeing this movie? I mean, the original came out nearly 30 years ago; why the sudden resurgence? That leaves Little Fockers, which looks like it recycles the same old "Everybody Loves Raymond"-type jokes, and Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader. I'm surprised no one else mentioned Narnia. I know--Prince Caspian seemed to have all but destroyed the franchise (inexplicably in my opinion, since it was better than the original), but the new one has a different studio behind it and it's being released in December instead of May, which is a big deal for a lot of Christian fans. Plus it's being presented in 3D, which will boost the grosses. It's mostly a guess at this point, but I would say Narnia is Potter's main rival, especially since it has the family demographic in its corner, and let's not forget the original Narnia beat Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire back in 2005.

Thoughts?

Edwin Davies: I saw the trailer for Voyage of The Dawn Treader for the first time before Deathly Hallows last night and, whilst I had to admit that it was a really impressive looking film, I, as someone who has only ever read The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe, could not tell what the film was about based on that trailer. It seemed to lack the clear throughline that the film version of The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe had and I think that will put off people unfamiliar with the source material, especially considering that whilst the Narnia series a well-known property, not that many people will have read all of the books. It'll also be competing against Tron: Legacy for 3D screens over the holidays, and if it can't keep up I can see it getting shunted out of them and winding up with a franchise-ending total.

As for Tron: Legacy, I think we're looking at a big opening weekend as fans of the original and the curious decide to check it out, followed by either a solid run as it holds all the 3D screens to itself or a spectacular burn out. I personally lean towards the latter because, whilst the trailer does make it look stunning (creepy CGI Jeff Bridges aside) it also looks like it makes no sense whatsoever, and I don't know how willing people will be to pay premium prices for a laser light show. Then again, I don't care for the original Tron, so perhaps I am underestimating its appeal.

In either case, I don't think that Tron will be that much of a threat because Tron: Legacy is in 3D, and Potter isn't. This might seem like paradoxical thinking since 3D tickets cost more and therefore offer more opportunity for Tron: Legacy to catch up with Deathly Hallows, but it also means that Tron won't be kicking Deathly Hallows out of all the 3D screens when it gets released, which is what often takes the wind out of 3D releases. Much as Inception did over the last couple of months, Deathly Hallows can sit undisturbed in the 2D screens whilst Tron: Legacy battles it out with Narnia and Gulliver's Travels for 3D screens.

Anyway, back to Deathly Hallows Part One. This very strong opening I think that it'll end up in the $330 million range, just topping Sorcerer's Stone but not hitting the heights that Part Two will next summer. Even if it sees precipitous drops over the next few weeks, the general rule being that the higher you are the further you have to fall, the Harry Potter series has always shown really solid legs, and the holiday season is perfectly suited to allow a big budget fantasy film to just keep on running.

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