Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 22, 2010
Michael Lynderey: There's one legitimate challenger, and one dark horse wobbler waiting in the wings. Tron is the one that's openly taking on Potter, but it's just impossible to say exactly how high or high low it'll go. Little Fockers is the really scary one, because, sure, it could go down with a total number under $200 mil - but what if it just explodes, as the silent majority of audiences seek an alternative to special effects? That's what happened in 2004 with Meet the Fockers, and while it probably won't happen again, coming out of nowhere is what dark horses are all about. So, beware.
As for Pottery legs - well, Deathly Hallows will probably be no more and no less leggy than Goblet of Fire, a film that is just such a perfect one to compare to this one. $300 million is probably assured, but I wouldn't be surprised if it came in just under the $317 mil that the first Potter finished with way back in the day. And that's where Tron and the Fockers come in. Maybe.
Reagen Sulewski: I think Little Fockers is going to make a depressingly large amount of money, but my threshold for "depressing" will probably be met by its Friday evening total. You definitely have to watch out for the "family" film over the holidays, and Ben Stiller has proven that he can turn chicken shit into chicken salad in this time period multiple times. I expect the barrier will be just a little too high to vault though, and Tron is starting to have the feel of a disappointment to me. Harry Potter looks secure for this year.
Max Braden: I don't think there's any way that Tron even comes close to competing with Potter. I'm a huge Tron fan, but even as pretty as the new trailer looks, it feels like another Jumper or even Lawnmower Man. Even the geeky original fanbase won't help sustain Legacy beyond its first week. It will do well as many Christmas releases do, but will fall far short in the final gross compared to Deathly Hallows. As a side guess I would predict that Tron opens under I Am Legend's record.
Little Fockers is harder to judge because it's one of those family movies that you think not many will see and yet it just prints money week after week. I could see Little Fockers outgrossing some of the weaker Potter entries, but I think Deathly Hallows will win in the end.
David Mumpower: With regards to the next Narnia movie, I think that there was an obvious explanation for the disappointment of Prince Caspian that applies now as well. People know the story of The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe. They do not know the rest of the books anywhere near as much. They lack that same level of name recognition. In addition, we have seen with the Potter films that a lull tends to follow the first film. The second Potter film earned $56 million less domestically and the third one is the only Potter release to earn less than $250 million. That means the Narnia series is fighting a battle on two levels with the first being stink of failure perception due to Prince Caspian earning less than half of what its immediate predecessor did. The second is that lull. I think that Prince Caspian is a huge success if it earns $175 million domestically, which is not on the level of the other titles we're discussing here.
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