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Michael Lynderey: The box office depreciation of the Narnia series has been pretty consistent. But not just the box office - the critical reception the last two films have gotten wasn't nearly as approving as that for the first. Aside from that, these films have to be looked at in the context of where and when they went into combat: the first film had the December kids' movie slot all to itself (despite what King Kong may have believed), while the second film came in the middle of a crowded row of May action-adventure that sandwiched itself between Iron Man and Indiana Jones. Of course, the name recognition for the first film is really the leading factor, but the Narnia films are otherwise behaving like other franchises that get into diminishing returns with each film.

Three words: The Golden Compass

Reagen Sulewski: If they do decide to continue, they're going to have to work hard at getting these $200 million plus budgets down to a reasonable amount. But a big problem is that the next two books in the series are the least remarkable and least cinematic of the series. A big-screen The Horse And His Boy would be an epic disaster. And Dawn Treader at least had some casual familiarity but I doubt The Silver Chair would come up for anyone in the general public as one of the Narnia books.

Josh Spiegel: I think it depends on how the film does overseas. The news has already come out that it made $81 million everywhere except North America, so there is still some demand for the film around the world. But if the movie ends up disappointing there, in the long run, yeah, Fox should cut the cord. Not many people are clamoring for more of these movies, so I'm not sure that Fox is going to get that much bang for their buck. Disney may well end up soaring or flopping with Tron: Legacy next weekend, but to me, they made the right call in kicking Narnia to the curb.





Edwin Davies: I agree with Reagan that the source material may be the biggest challenge if they decide to make the rest of the books. The next book in the series, The Silver Chair, doesn't feature any of the characters from the first few books apart from side characters like Aslan, and without that thread running from one film to the next the audience could lose interest. It'd be like making Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest without Captain Jack Sparrow. Some people might be drawn in by franchise recognition, but most people would need a somewhat familiar face to latch onto. It also doesn't help that the stories get less focused as the series goes on, so the studio would either have to change them and risk alienating the more passionate fans, or make films that casual moviegoers might find a bit weird and off-putting. It's an unenviable situation.

Matthew Huntley: Based on the information I only know right now, I think Fox should pull the plug. Even with its $105 million worldwide debut, the production budget alone for Dawn Treader was $150 million. When all the marketing costs are taken into account, we're looking at over $200 million, which means the movie's final gross would have to be at least $300 million just so the studio could show a little profit (after the theaters take their shares). With the holidays coming up, that could happen, but not likely. A series like this is just too expensive to keep going (even though the completionist inside me would like it to).

Kim, could you re-post this same question the weekend after New Years? I'm curious to see if our responses will change after the holiday numbers are released.

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