Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

December 21, 2010

This is our favorite moment of the 2010 NFL season.

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Mark Wahlberg would like you to say hello to your mother.

Kim Hollis: The Fighter expanded to 2,499 venues this week, and earned $12.1 million in the process. How should Paramount feel about this result?

Michael Lynderey: Excellent. That's exactly the number you want for a drama that's heading into awards season with excellent reviews. I don't think we'll see three digits, but a total around as much as $80 million isn't out of the question. And if you look at the ghosts of Oscar seasons past, recent years haven't offered a lot of these Oscary dramas doing even as well as that.

Edwin Davies: I think they should be very happy. They seem to have chosen just the right time to move it into wide-release, capitalizing on the awards attention that the film has received as well as the strong reviews and word-of-mouth. Of the Oscar contenders that are out or are about to come out, it's easily the most conventional and crowd-pleasing and so will probably wind up being a consensus choice over the coming weeks for people who want to watch a good film but are too weirded out by Black Swan. With the holidays still ahead and awards season just starting to heat up - a season which will probably reward Christian Bale a fair amount - then this could be a strong start to a very successful run for The Fighter.




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Probably the biggest winner out of the situation, though, is director David O. Russell, who has spent the better part of the last decade in the wilderness, as far as Hollywood is concerned. Seems that taking over the film from Darren Aronofsky (who left to direct Black Swan, also in the Top Ten) has been the right move for him, since it might provide him with the sort of sizable critical and commercial hit that will allow him to keep making movies. Which is good news since he's an interesting, if volatile and a teensy bit crazy, guy.

Reagen Sulewski: It's funny how even a token limited release can change the perceptions of a film. This film's limited run was a one-week, three-venue blip, which then expanded immediately into a 2,500 venue release. And with that one week, The Fighter changed from a Mark Wahlberg sports film to a prestige release and gets treated with different rules.

It's not without reason - with those Oscar noms forthcoming, we know that the box office is going to be unusually strong. But a $12 million opening for Invincible or Shooter is a disaster. Here, it's a great start.

David Mumpower: Reagen's point regarding perception is exceptional. Acknowledging that, we as a group reached a universally positive consensus regarding Black Swan's $3.3 million in 90 locations last weekend. With another exceptional expansion this weekend, that Oscar contender is at $15.8 million after 17 days. Yes, it still has one more significant expansion to go; still, The Fighter is already right on its heels with $12.6 million after ten days in release. If we liked what Black Swan pulled off over the last two weekends, we must similarly praise The Fighter even if it did skip bases in expanding into 2,499 new locations, an exhibition number Black Swan may never see. What I take from all of this is that I believe both of these films have gone a long way toward securing Best Picture nominations through their expansion performances. These awards season buzz films need positive reviews (unless they're trying to get Golden Globes nods...then, they just need Johnny Depp or Angelina Jolie) and enough box office to avoid the perception of bombing. Each has done so with The Fighter appearing to have the most long term upside in terms of domestic revenue.


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