Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 20, 2011
David Mumpower: I agree with Reagen's assessment that Warner Bros. and DC should be ecstatic over the opening weekend. We are almost exactly a year removed from the Jonah Hex disaster and Green Lantern's early trailers looked no better. A decision was made to build the brand through a massive marketing push with the end result being that Green Lantern has opened higher than - and I hope you're sitting down for this - Batman Begins or Superman Returns. Yes, ticket price inflation and particularly the spike in 3D ticket expense factors in. If we simply look at the opening weekend number, Green Lantern is still bigger, though. That is a win in the short term. Whatever happens next is irrelevant to the story of the moment. Despite having no awareness level among mainstream consumers and despite DC's spotty track record with regards to non-Batman characters, Green Lantern has opened quite well. Small scale victories are still victories.
Green Lantern 2: Now the Pink Dude Is Annoyed
Kim Hollis: What parameters do you believe Green Lantern would need to meet from this point forward to justify a sequel?
Brett Beach: With $150 million budget on this (and as the Weekend Wrap-Up noted, maybe that much in advertising costs), it suggests to me that WB is already committed to the sequel and anything outside of abject Jonah Hex failure was not going to stop them. I think if they come close to doubling the budget with the international take, they will proceed with a less expensive part two (maybe) and focus a lot more intently on the story (ha ha). The template I am looking at is the Fantastic Four films, the first one which performed decently, and the second one "failed" in that it only grossed 85% of the original (and cost more). The critical/audience reception of the first FF and TGL are about the same and my guess is the sequel will follow in two years, perform about as TGL is going to do, and there will be talk of a reboot going forth from there.
Edwin Davies: They'd need to get somewhere north of $300 million to recoup their investment, but the only thing that would guarantee a sequel would be if it actually made a profit, so $400 million or more would be the water mark. Personally, I think Green Lantern is going to top out in the $130-150 million range, so it might just about make its production budget back domestically. I think it might be able to get the remainder from international takings, but I don't think the character is well known enough for it overcome the pretty toxic response.
Tim Briody: Sequel? Nah, with a performance like this, just reboot it in a few years. I hear it's all the rage nowadays.
Bruce Hall: I have a hard time seeing enthusiasm for a sequel. Then again, they made two Hulk films that nobody cared about, and that character will return alongside The Avengers next year. Maybe these guys really DO have super powers and can't be killed. I think that after all is said and done, Green Lantern's box office will mean that a less expensive sequel is not out of the question. As for a reboot, I think it's good that computer terminology has become so ubiquitous. Because now there's a logical sounding word for the process of forcing the same movie down the public's throat over and over again until they just submit and like it.
You WILL love the Green Lantern. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But someday.
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