Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 19, 2011
Jason Lee: Over the past decade, I've been incredibly impressed with the way that the film's producers have maintained the quality of the film adaptations through seven books, four directors, billions of fans, mammoth expectations and the onslaught of puberty. Really, when you think about it, the HP franchise's cinematic record is close (but not too close) to Pixar's streak of quality pre-Cars 2. As for final domestic total, I'm with Edwin. I think $400 million is definitely possible, especially given that with no more movies and no more books, fans of the series may be a little unwilling to let go.
Reagen Sulewski: When you look at the top 25 worldwide earners of all time, six of them start with "Harry Potter and the", and it's about to be seven. The number of franchises that even get seven theatrical entries and which don't involve someone getting stabbed are vanishingly small. While a film like Avatar is overall more impressive, the depth and longevity of Potter is something that cannot be overlooked.
Jim Van Nest: The consistency this series has shown, in my opinion, can be directly linked to the brilliance of JK Rowling. Harry was 11 when he first entered Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry. And Sorcerer's Stone was written as if created for an 11 year old. As Harry and Co grew up, so did the writing in the books. And as the books grew up, so did the films. It truly is an amazing feat to start a series for 10-11 year olds and get more mature with each and every book, just as your readers are growing up. Other series of children's books/films rely on new waves of kids becoming interested in them. Harry Potter built an audience that never outgrew what they were reading, hence they never outgrew the films, either. All the while, the series continued to pick up new 10-11 year-olds every year. It really is a phenomenon that I don't think we're likely to see for a long, long time.
Daron Aldridge: Consistency is king with this franchise. To sustain, a box office range of $249 million to $317 million over seven films in ten years is quite a feat. The fact that none of the sequels exploded at the box office ahead of its predecessors (a la The Matrix or Pirates) and then faltered due to questionable quality shows that the franchise’s fanbase has been pleased with their regular doses of Potter on film. I consider myself a big fan of all the films but this is the first on that I actually saw in the theater and I did it so on opening night even. That type of appeal of it being that last one, I believe, drove this one to its heights. For the long haul, I think the most likely scenario is that Part 2 will follow the pattern of Part 1 with its 2.36 multiplier. That would give Part 2 $396 million in North America. Granted, Part 1 was a November release but I just can’t see Part 2 following the previous summer multipliers of Order of the Phoenix (3.79) or Half-Blood Prince (3.9). If that would play out and split the difference with a 3.85 multiplier, Part 2 would end with an astonishing $646 million. I would love to see but I find it highly unlikely.
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