Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 3, 2011
Max Braden: "Niche market" is about the long and short of anything I can come up with about this one.
David Mumpower: The greatest surprise for me with regards to Courageous is that it was fairly frontloaded. With $3.1 million in the bank on Friday, I felt quite confident that Sunday would be its biggest day due to church congregations spreading the word about its quality. This is the rare movie with an A+ Cinemascore and while there is merit to the argument that that metric is flawed, the reality is that the people who went to see Courageous on opening day were given exactly what they wanted. I expected a surge as the positive feedback was relayed but instead the "de facto sequel" aspect we have discussed meant that its Friday and Saturday filled most of the demand. I considered a final domestic take well in excess of Fireproof as a foregone conclusion; that is no longer a certainty. Either way, for a $2 million production, a $9.1 million weekend is the proverbial jackpot. Sony made a savvy move in acquiring distribution rights for Sherwood Pictures releases.
People just don't want cancer stuff to be funny. Unless it's Archer.
Kim Hollis: 50/50, the comedy/drama featuring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen, earned $8.6 million this weekend. How should Summit Entertainment feel about this result?
Edwin Davies: They will probably be pretty disappointed in the short term given the name recognition of the two stars (this is the lowest opening of Seth Rogen's career since he became a star, Joseph Gordon-Levitt seems to be perpetually on the verge of becoming a bona fide star) and the great reviews and word-of-mouth, all of which combined probably led them to expect the film to open in the $12 million range. However, we shouldn't lose sight of two key factors here; the film was very cheap to make (it apparently only cost $8 million, so it has already made its budget back) and it is a comedy about cancer. That is a very tough sell, and I think that the fact it opened to this amount is a testament to the strength of the material and the actors to overcome a premise that could have been toxic. It's not going to be a huge hit, but I think that the next couple of weeks will be kind to 50/50 as word-of-mouth spreads, so in the long run this will probably wind up being a minor success for Summit.
Shalimar Sahota: I expected an opening of $10 million+. I imagine Summit won't be too pleased, but they knew this was a tough sell before agreeing to distribute, and kudos for taking the risk. That a majority of people have been affected by cancer in some way (be it themselves or someone they know) means that audiences probably don't want to be reminded about it, even if it is a well received comedy. Despite excellent reviews, I would normally say that word-of-mouth well help it hold (and I hope it does), but I'm worried that it's going to end up dropping fast. Still, given the small production budget it'll make for a minor hit.
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