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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

With every precursor that gets announced, Harry Potter's chances of being a Best Picture nominee shrink. But while it's a longshot over there, it is the favorite here. The Academy will want to reward the Harry Potter series as a whole, and this seems like the category where it is most likely to win an Oscar. What is remarkable is that it would be only the second Harry Potter film to be nominated in this category, after Deathly Hallows Part 1. While that seems to be an indication that Deathly Hallows might not get nominated, remember that all those early nominations were fighting to get onto a list of three. An expanded category and a desire to award the series as a whole means Deathly Hallows 2 seems very sure of its spot here.

Hugo

Best Picture contenders aren't typically known for their visual effects, which means that when a film is in the running for that category, they try to nominate it here. Hugo is a film that is all about spectacle, and while it doesn't have the over-the-top visual effects of Transformers or Potter, it is a visually sumptuous film. But like Benjamin Button before it, the impressive visuals are only half the story; this is a film that the Academy will love, and they will try to nominate it in as many categories as possible. This is just one more opportunity for them to say “Yay, Hugo,” in addition to marking the first time that a Martin Scorsese movie will be nominated for Best Visual Effects.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

There are things that the Academy likes when it comes to visual effects: machines, aliens, monsters, and animals that do human stuff. Unless you count Tom Cruise in that last category, M:I 4 doesn't have any of those things. This is a fairly standard film; well executed, yes, but not with the kind of spectacle that you need to get a spot in this category. The fact that none of the previous Mission: Impossible films have shown up here essentially seals this film's fate. It might sneak in to the Sound Mixing or Sound Editing categories, but it doesn't have any serious shot here.

Real Steel

If you're looking for an unexpected film to make it into this category, look here. Yes, it is a kids' film that didn't do great at the box-office and isn't thought very highly of (I am sure I'm not the only one who assumed it was adapted from the game Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots). None of those things are likely to help it in this category, but what I've heard from people who have actually seen the film is that the robots are extremely well-done and that, in particular, the integration of the CGI and the real people is extraordinary. It's not a favorite by any stretch - and if it does get nominated it almost certainly won't win - but if the Academy wants to nominate something with robots and is tired of the Transformers series, they could make room for Real Steel.

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