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Rise of the Planet of the Apes

I don't think anybody expected that a prequel to Planet of the Apes would be one of the best-reviewed films of the year and one of the biggest hits of the summer. Nor was, I think, anybody expecting it to be one of the favorites to win Best Visual Effects, especially considering all of the previous films in this serious were more renowned for their makeup. But with all of the apes created through CGI, the effect is undeniably impressive, especially the work done with Caesar. This is a film that both features big CGI fight scenes and creates an emotionally resonant character, which is a double whammy that the Academy will not be able to resist.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Sherlock is in the same boat as Mission: Impossible, and not just because they both love long titles with colons in them. The action scenes in Sherlock are certainly impressive, but they do not have the grandiosity or the wow factor to make it here. So when somebody tells you that A Game of Shadows isn't going to be a Best Visual Effects nominee, you should respond, “No shit, Ethan Hunt.”

Sucker Punch

This is an interesting film to show up on the short list, because it came out so long ago that I assume everybody had forgotten about it. But yes, if you are discussing the best Visual Effects of the year, you have to consider Sucker Punch, especially its dragon fight. But will dislike for the film in general, as well as its early release date, work against it? Also, if Zack Snyder's 300 didn't get nominated, why would this one? Maybe it's because it feels more like a video game than a movie, or that the characters feel even faker than the CGI, but I just don't see this film as a nominee. I can't rule it out completely, but it is certainly a long shot.

Super 8

This film is a toss-up for me. On the one hand it got very good reviews and did very good business. On the other, it seems to have mostly been forgotten about since it left theaters. Yes, the tech branches are better at remembering early releases than the actors and directors are, but considering that the bulk of the films on the short list came out around the same time, this smaller film could get lost. Plus, it is not a CGI driven film the way some of the other contenders are; the visual effects are impressive, but they are a throwback rather than trying to be something new and groundbreaking. If the voters love the film they will be predisposed to nominate it, but considering how many superheroes and robots it has to go against, its giant monster may not do the trick.

Thor

As usual, there are a pile of summer movies fighting it out in this category, all of them with impressive special effects, all of them working hard to set themselves apart from the others. Being one of the few non-sequel blockbusters of the summer will give this film an advantage, along with Captain America. The combination of being set in both a mythical world and the real world should also be an advantage; we saw when The Golden Compass won its award that having a CGI setting sometimes plays better than putting CGI into a real setting. The fact that this use of CGI is unique in this category should help Thor even more, although it didn't help Immortals even make it onto the shortlist. Will that be enough? It certainly helps.

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