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For all of the vitriol spewed at the Academy for their decision to change the Best Picture nominating process to allow anywhere from five to ten nominees, instead of establishing the number of nominees beforehand, it has turned out to be a brilliant decision. True, there is no film like The Blind Side to stink up the Best Picture race this year, but simply for the excitement added to the race, the change was fantastic. If they had gone back to five nominees the race would be over, with almost no chance of any of the five leading contenders being left out. If they had stuck with ten, the eight leading contenders would all be certain of a nomination, and a handful of stragglers would be fighting it out for the last two spots knowing they are serving purely as filler. With the potential for all of the second-tier candidates to get in, but also the potential for none of them, it has made Best Picture by far the most exciting race of the year, exactly as it is supposed to be.

There are five films that are, barring an act of God (by which I mean Harvey Weinstein) definitely going to be Best Picture nominees. Those films are The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. If you don't know why these five are in then you clearly haven't been paying any attention to the Oscar race and I'm not sure why you decided to start now. Anyway, I'm not going to waste my time by going into any further detail about why all of them will be Best Picture nominees. Instead, I will focus on the films that are on the border, that probably will/might/could/have a chance at being nominated. So now, as a way of wrapping up the long slough from the NBR to the Oscar nominations, I will break down the chances of the seven films beyond those five that I think have the best chance of getting in.

Moneyball

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, SAG Best Actor, SAG Best Supporting Actor, WGA Best Adapted Screenplay, ACE Best Editing-Drama, CAS Best Sound Mixing

Why it will probably be nominated: Because it is one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Because it is basically guaranteed nominations for Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay. Because it will have support from the actors, the writers, and the sound mixers, apparently. Because it is a moving underdog story that will appeal to voters. Plus, Brad Pitt is frickin' dreamy.

Why it might not: Because it might not get any below the line nominations. Because it's kind of a downer. Because it's a movie that a lot of people really like, but not that many people passionately love. Remember, this year is all about those number one votes. How many people are going to put this one at number one? How many baseball fans are there in the Academy?

War Horse

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, ACE Best Editing-Drama, VES Best Supporting Visual Effects

Why it might not get nominated: Because it is the kind of big sweeping epic that everybody in the film industry is supposed to fall all over themselves for, and apparently they haven't. The film has had a very sparse showing with the guilds, getting ignored by the DGA, the WGA, and the ASC. Those were supposed to be three easy nominations for a Spielberg war epic. Critics don't love it (78% on rotten tomatoes), audiences don't love it (it's barely made back its budget so far) and the guilds don't love it. That's not a good sign.

Why it probably will: I have three words for you, and one of those words is just there to emphasize the other two: Steven frickin' Spielberg. Yes, War Horse has underperformed at the guilds, and is not in as strong a position as it would like to be, but it is still a Steven Spielberg war film. It will still have a lot of supporters. Remember when Letters from Iwo Jima was striking out with every guild, but rallied to score Picture and Director nominations? If any film, and any any director, can pull off a similar feat, it is War Horse and Steven F. Spielberg (the F stands for Frickin').

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