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Which is not to say that The Artist should be counted out of the race for Best Costumes, or that Hugo has it in the bag. Hugo's costumes are almost as flashy as its sets, which makes it the frontrunner, but The Artist is more of a threat here than in Art Direction. It has a wide variety of costumes, and its gowns and suits are very memorable. Gangs of New York might have had more impressive costumes than Chicago, but Chicago was more defined by what its characters wore. It would be very easy for me to talk myself into predicting a win for The Artist here, but I'll stick with my gut.

Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: Jane Eyre

Best Film Editing

This is the category where Best Picture winners are made. Going back 20 years, 11 Best Picture winners have also taken home Best Film Editing, a closer matchup than any category except for Best Director. What kind of Best Picture winners don't win Best Film Editing? The kind that don't have a large consensus of voters pushing for them, or that are not heralded for their technical achievements. The King's Speech, No Country for Old Men, Million Dollar Baby, and A Beautiful Mind, Gladiator, American Beauty. Most of those films you don't watch and think “wow, that's great film editing.” Gladiator is the oddball on that list, but that lost to Traffic, which had very notable editing.

The kinds of films that win without also taking Best Picture are the kind that have really standout film editing, the kind that gets attention. Traffic is a perfect example. The Social Network had it, as did The Bourne Ultimatum, Black Hawk Down, and The Matrix. Is there a nominee that has that high a level of attention-getting editing? You could make an argument for Hugo, but it would be a weak one. It is also worth noting that, unless there is a Best Picture winner sweeping, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing rarely match up, with The Aviator being the only recent example. There is no brilliantly edited film in this category, which means that the safe choice is The Artist.

Will Win: The Artist
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

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