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Best Actress

This category is even trickier than Best Actor because, while Viola Davis does have a lot of momentum, Meryl Streep has two key precursor wins in head-to-head battles against Davis. Streep won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA award, while Davis took the SAG award and the Critic's Choice Award. Based on that information, who is the favorite? If we are making an argument for Streep winning, let's look at times that the Globe Drama winner won the Oscar without winning the SAG award. That has happened twice, in 1999 and 1994. Hilary Swank won the Golden Globe, but lost the SAG to Annette Bening. Despite going up against the star of the Best Picture winner, Swank won the Oscar. In 1994 Jessica Lange won the Globe for Blue Sky, while the SAG went to Jodie Foster for Nell. It is likely that the Oscars did not want to award Foster again, as she had won in both 1988 and 1991, so the Oscar went to Lange.

Now let's look at years where the SAG winner lost the Globe but won the Oscar. In 2001 Halle Berry lost the Globe to Sissy Spacek, but a wave of momentum got her the SAG win and carried her to the Oscar. The same thing happened in 1995, when Sharon Stone beat Susan Sarandon for the Globe Drama, but Sarandon won the SAG award and ended up winning the Oscar. It is also important to keep in mind that the BAFTA is not terribly helpful here.

Over the last 16 years their Best Actress prize has matched Oscar less than half the time. Plus, the Brits were predisposed to vote for Streep since she is playing a British icon in Margaret Thatcher, while Viola Davis is playing in American icon in Mammy. In addition, the HFPA tends to award Streep fairly frequently. She has won Globes for Julie & Julia, The Devil Wears Prada, and Adaptation, but did not win the Oscar for any of those performances.

You can make strong cases for either performance. Streep is playing a real person, has an accent, is wearing prosthetics, and feigns dementia, all of which are major plusses when it comes to the Oscars. Davis is wildly popular, starring in a film that is loved by the actors and is a Best Picture nominee. It has been more than a decade since an actress in a film that was nominated for Best Picture lost this award to an actress who wasn't (Halle Berry beating Sissy Spacek in 2001). The Academy has been waiting for the right time to give Streep another Oscar, always finding a reason not to. Is The Iron Lady convincing enough as a case for Streep's third Oscar? I suspect it won't be.

Will Win: Viola Davis - The Help
Might Win: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

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