Weekend Forecast for June 29-July 1, 2012
By Reagen Sulewski
June 29, 2012
The joke of the film is pretty much that - “what if a teddy bear could get drunk and fool around with trashy women?”, although it's a decent one as one-joke based films go, or at least there's material there. It's also as likely as we are to get a Family Guy movie, which you may or may not consider a positive. Around this premise, they've constructed a fairly standard “layabout friend needs to be set loose and grow up” plot, as Wahlberg attempts to build a life with his girlfriend (played by Mila Kunis), but, you know, with puppets. And as anyone who remembers that one episode of Angel, puppets doing people things is hilarious. Especially fighting with people, which is the centerpiece of the trailer and reminds me a bit of the campaign for There's Something About Mary.
Wahlberg's comedy comparisons are hard to come by, with really just The Other Guys in recent years (and some small supporting roles), and if we go way back, the bizarre and underrated The Big Hit. Even some of his action and dramatic roles have some comedy in them, so he's not a stranger to the concept of making people laugh (sometimes even on purpose!). In the end, I think funny wins out here, and we should an opening weekend of about $27 million.
Possibly the most review-proof movie of the week is Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection, which I'm sure could have gotten another apostrophe in there if they'd tried. This is now the seventh film in the Madea series and the 11th under the Tyler Perry empire's banner, and while there's an occasional sign that people are getting tired of him, we're likely not that lucky. His last film, 's Good Deeds, was the lowest opening film of his to date, but also was more of a straight drama and had none of his transvestite fat suit antics or broad comedy. For Witness Protection, he's added Eugene Levy and Denise Richards. That about sums it up right there, doesn't it?
The Madea movies have always been the most popular of Perry's films and I don't expect that fact to change this time, although I don't see a return to the heights of Goes to Jail. So, $24 million? Sure, why not.
People Like Us is the unusual film in this bunch for... not being unusual, with a straight forward dramatic plot and everything, and no bizarre loglines. Chris Pine plays a man who discovers at his father's funeral that dad had a parallel family, including a daughter (played by Elizabeth Banks) and grandson. Having left an inheritance to them, Pine is left to distribute it, but can't tell them who he is for some reason that I'm sure makes sense within the film's world view but probably serves to just keep the movie going longer than 20 minutes.
This leads to some cross-country road trip, and Pine's mother, played by Michelle Pfeiffer, enters into this somehow, along with his girlfriend (played by Olivia Wilde). So it's a good cast as these things go, but it also sounds utterly conventional and uncommercial, especially compared to the rest of the weekend. Maybe it should have aliens in it or something. Opening in around 2,000 venues, it should manage about $7 million this weekend.
These numbers mean that Brave has an excellent chance of remaining at the top of the box office for a second straight weekend. The “girl power in the Scottish Highlands” fantasy film from Pixar showed some nice resiliency for the company after the giant critical disappointment that was Cars 2. While it doesn't stand up very well inflation-wise, $66 million is still a great opening weekend for an animated film, and the word-of-mouth appears to be pretty strong on this. Look for it at the top of the charts again with around $42 million.
Madagascar 3 stood up nicely in the face of direct competition, dropping just 42% to about $20 million for second place, and putting it at around $160 million total. It's now pretty much a cinch to pass the $193 million of the first film in the series and should make it to as much as $225 million domestic. Add about $11 million this weekend.
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter may be number one in our hearts for title of the year, but it only managed third last weekend with $16 million. Perhaps we will have to wait for Stephen Spielberg for the definitive take on Lincoln's dalliances with the supernatural. In any case, this is a film that was betting almost purely on kitsch value for its box office, and I don't anticipate anyone having been on the fence about this. Look for a drop to around $7 million this weekend.
|
Forecast: Weekend of June 29-July 1, 2012
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Brave
|
4,164
|
No change
|
42.3
|
|
2
|
Magic Mike
|
2,930
|
New
|
35.7
|
|
3
|
Ted
|
3,239
|
New
|
27.6
|
|
4
|
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection
|
2,161
|
New
|
24.0
|
|
5
|
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
|
3,715
|
-205
|
11.4
|
|
6
|
People Like Us
|
2,055
|
New
|
7.5
|
|
7
|
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
|
3,109
|
+2
|
7.4
|
|
8
|
The Avengers
|
1,757
|
-473
|
4.9
|
|
9
|
Prometheus
|
1,951
|
-910
|
4.6
|
|
10
|
Snow White and the Huntsman
|
2,337
|
-582
|
4.2
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
|
Print this column
