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There is some history that we can look back on to help inform our decision, although none of it is particularly helpful. The three years that are most relevant to this discussion are 2009, 2011, and 2012. In 2009 The Dark Knight was in contention, but in a field of five it was edged out by more typical Oscar fare. Many people specifically point to The Reader as the film that stole the spot that could have gone to either The Dark Knight or Wall-E. In 2011 Inception was able to secure a nomination in a ten-nominee field, but without a Best Director or Best Film Editing nomination it was relegated to the group of also-rans that were ornamental in the race between The King's Speech and The Social Network.

2012 was, of course, the first year that involved a flex field, and gives us some insight into how Academy voters take advantage of such a voting system. While none of these fields give us much to work with, hopefully combining their information will give us at least a little bit of insight, especially by looking at how the same group of films would have fared under alternative systems.

In 2009, the nominees were The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, and, of course, Slumdog Millionaire, so it is safe to assume that in a flex field those films would have also shown up. Films that were also in contention and ended up having some success at the Oscars that year include Changeling, The Dark Knight, Doubt, Frozen River, Revolutionary Road, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, and The Wrestler.

If there had been ten guaranteed spots in the race, the list would almost certainly included The Dark Knight, Doubt, and Wall-E, with two other films filling out the field, probably Vicky Cristina Barcelona (to add some levity to an otherwise really depressing list of films) and The Wrestler. If last year's system had been in effect, Wall-E would have comfortably gotten in, and Doubt would have gotten a big enough push by the actors to make it in, but The Dark Knight would have been on shakier ground. Still, I think we can safely say that the film would have been a Best Picture nominee under those rules.

In 2011 there were ten nominees, including Nolan's Inception. Based on the way the other categories broke down, it can be safely assumed that, had there been only five nominees, they would have included Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and almost certainly True Grit. An argument could be made for The Kids are All Right, but Inception, without a Best Director nomination or any acting nominees, would have had difficulty breaking into a field of five.

Which films would have made it into a flex field in that year? Winter's Bone would almost certainly not have, but I would guess that all of the other nine films would have made it in. Could 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, or even Inception have gotten snubbed? Yes, but it is unlikely. So based on this haphazard guesswork, I have concluded that both of Nolan's last two films would have been Best Picture nominees in a flex field. The question is, will Rises do as well? Let's next look at what nominations in other categories the film can expect to receive.

In 2009 The Dark Knight was nominated for eight Oscars: Art Direction, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and the two categories in which it won, Best Sound Editing and Best Supporting Actor. Two years later Inception was also nominated for eight Oscars, including five that it shared with The Dark Knight. In addition to nominations for Art Direction, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects, it was also nominated for Original Screenplay, Original Score, and of course Picture. It did not receive nominations for Makeup or Film Editing (a particularly surprising omission, as I have discussed before), nor did it receive any acting nominations.

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