Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

October 24, 2012

Chris Johnson, meet the end zone, something you find less often than the little man in the boat.

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Jason Barney: This is an interesting question, and my guess would be there is going to be line of these films for the next several years. 2013, 2014, 2015 and beyond. Just taking a look at the history gives enough evidence as to what the future will hold. If each of these films has a production budget in the $5 to $7 million range and they are giving back spectacular returns, I think we would be naive to assume viewers will just totally go away.

2009: Almost $200 million worldwide
2010: $84 million domestic
2011: $104 million domestic
2012: $56 million worldwide only after a week or so

Just taking a look at these numbers, especially in consideration of the production budget, doesn't lead me to believe we are going to see any sort of huge drop. I am not saying creatively this franchise is stellar, or that any one of these films should be up for awards, I am just acknowledging the cash cow that Paramount has stumbled upon. Why wouldn't they make another next year? And the year after that? I actually wouldn't be surprised if they tried to branch off somehow and create another series along these lines. Follow the money.

Tim Briody: I'd give it 90% odds. They'll continue to be stupidly cheap to make (as much as this lost of Paranormal Activity 3, it still made its production budget back after Friday) and unless they try to reboot Saw or something else comes along the way Paranormal Activity did to kill off the Saw franchise, it'll keep going until the wheels fall completely off.




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Max Braden: To be honest, I've seen the first three and couldn't keep track of who was related to whom and who disappeared when. There's some mythology to it but I don't think that's the primary selling point. The filmmakers might reassess after the box office of the next sequel, but this franchise is low enough budget and amorphous with the characters and actors that I think they could easily continue with straight to video titles. Wild Things did that with three direct to video sequels. I'm not admitting to seeing them... I'm just sayin'.

David Mumpower: Paranormal Activity 5 should experience diminished returns domestically but as Jason astutely notes, the fourth film is already a global triumph relative to financial outlay. I fully expect there to be annual sequels since the profitability of this franchise is divine (or unholy?). Were I involved with this content, however, I would strongly suggest skipping a year or two after the already planned Paranormal Activity 5 in order to procure more time to produce the best product possible rather than making another cash grab in 2014. The bank will not have had enough time to re-fill the safe by then. There was a time in 2008 when Saw seemed like our constant October companion. Then the wheels came off quickly and dramatically. This example should be a cautionary tale for the Paranormal Activity team, especially after this weekend's decline relative to last year's outing.


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