Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

December 18, 2012

Chris Johnson is an okay dude, even if he cost me my fantasy football game yesterday.

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Shalimar Sahota: You’ve broken the record for the highest December opening - what could be bad about that? So yeah, it’s a good result, very close to where I expected it to open. It’s going to play well over the rest of the month, however the frontloadedness of the film and the middling reviews would suggest to me that word-of-mouth might not be so strong here. It does have me wondering if maybe it’ll take longer than usual to reach the $300 million mark (if at all).

Reagen Sulewski: I wouldn't worry all too much about front-loading with Christmas just over the horizon - even if it does take a bit of a hit this weekend, it's got a week or so of insane box office to run up the score with. But there was a lot riding on this opening as a proof of concept, and the fact that they're wrenching three movies out of material that could easily have just been one is going to put the money counters at Warner Bros. a little on edge. I think it is ultimately going to be fine, largely because international box office is such a bigger piece of the pie now, but if we're looking at comparables, somewhere in the 100s should have been what we'd seen for an opening weekend.

Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great opening. I know that a lot of people were expecting it to get close to or even over $100 million but I always thought those predictions were unrealistic. I know Lord of the Rings was one of the most popular series but I always felt that the Hobbit would be more for us nerds. That being said, this is a great start and the movie is perfectly positioned to ride the Holidays gravy train.




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David Mumpower: I have more concerns than the rest of you. First of all, no matter what anyone at Warner Bros. says, this opening is on the VERY low end of expectations. We are commenting as if this is not troubling. Here is the reality. There have been nine years of box office ticket price inflation plus The Hobbit is released in IMAX as well as 3D. The average ticket price was $6.03 when Return of the King was released. Just think about that for a moment. We are talking about 12 million tickets sold for that film as opposed to 75% of that for The Hobbit. The boat was already leaking and now the next few weeks are impacted by the lackluster word-of-mouth for the title. Yes, the movie received an A Cinemascore but that was from people who were going to enjoy this movie no matter what. The non-zealots walked out of the theater wondering what happened to Peter Jackson over the past decade. International box office will carry The Hobbit to box office glory. Let's not mistake that as being the same as the film performing well relative to expectations. Thus far, it hasn't.

Kim Hollis: Honestly, this is about what I expected the film to make, given its December start and super hefty run time. For those worried about its front-loading, it's impossible to compare it to the first three films due to their Wednesday opening, but I don't think it is too terribly out of line considering its midnight (now actually 10 p.m.) start time. Now, I do think that Warner Bros. is probably dissatisfied with the debut, because it certainly *feels* like it should have done more. I do think that The Hobbit has turned out to be a tougher movie to sell than Lord of the Rings for a number of reasons. Turning a 300-ish page book into three films seems like overreaching, even if Peter Jackson is drawing on additional source material. At nearly three hours long, the movie becomes not-so-family-friendly. Reviews have indicated that Jackson hasn't captured the magic in the same way he did. I'm sure The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will be fine as far as returns go, especially when overseas revenue is factored in. I think the bigger concern is whether audiences stay with the prequel series to the end.


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