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Expectations: Second breakfast. Handkerchiefs.

Kim Hollis: What are your expectations for The Hobbit from this point forward?

Jason Barney: I think it is unfortunate that reviews have not been kind. I don't think this will hit the film's final take much, but just imagine what the buzz would be if this was as highly regarded as the Lord of the Rings films. Not that the reviews are horrible, but positive word-of-mouth means a lot with respect to strong daily holds. I would expect The Hobbit to have little trouble earning back the money the studio put into it. I doubt this is a strong enough opening for it to go over the $300 million mark, but it could come close.

Bruce Hall: I think that some of the more tepid reviews will serve to narrow the film's long term appeal, meaning I don't think this is going to be smash some people were evidently expecting. I DO think that it will ultimately equal or surpass the totals achieved by The Return of the King, but not by a wide margin. I just feel like there was a lot of money left on the table here, and it may have been because people had trouble connecting with Jackson's interpretation of the story and the ones who truly cared about that were particularly vocal. That's the thing that could spell "trouble" for the next two installments, assuming they're thematically and structurally going to be more or less the same. But the kind of trouble I'm talking about is the "Making a Slightly Less Mind Boggling Amount of Money Than Anticipated" kind of trouble. That's a pretty sweet problem to have.

Edwin Davies: My expectations fall somewhere between Jay and Bruce's. I think that the film will have little problem clearing the $300 million mark thanks to the holiday bonanza and the fact that it's really the only film of its type being released over the next few weeks, both of which should prop it up somewhat. After all, if the calendar configuration could make The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo a $100 million earner, it should be able to push The Hobbit to $300 million. Beyond that, though, I think the film will probably make more than The Fellowship of the Ring, maybe The Two Towers, but will likely not match or beat Return of the King, which was a juggernaut in ways that The Hobbit absolutely isn't. Regardless of how big a hit The Hobbit winds up being, I think it's undeniably a hit at this point, though I think fan reaction will be key to determining whether the new trilogy sees the same ever-increasing returns that the original did.

Matthew Huntley: Although reviews from critics have been lukewarm, everyday audience reception--at least from what I could tell in the theater and on social network websites like Facebook--is positive and people are generally liking what they're seeing. With that in mind, I think An Unexpected Journey will go on to make somewhere between $250-$275 million domestically. Of course, I can only use its opening weekend as an indicator, but because it lacks the novelty of the first series (filmmaking/character-wise, it's more of the same), I don't think its gross will be as high. Where this puts next year's The Desolation of Smaug, I think it's too early to tell, but one thing that seems certain: the studios that wrote the checks for this franchise will make their money back.

Shalimar Sahota: If the film somehow ends up enticing kids that have never even seen any of the Lord of the Rings movies then it’ll likely do very well over the month and exceed expectations. Otherwise it's just the majority of the same fans that turned up around a decade ago.... which will still be good enough to be a success. However, given how it played out over the weekend I think it’s going to be a bit of a struggle to reach $300 million. I do not see it reaching the highs of Return of the King (both domestic and worldwide). In fact I'm now very interested to see how well it holds during that second weekend.

Felix Quinonez: I think that it will perform as if it were a sequel to the Lord of the Rings series in that it opened bigger but won't have as great legs. That being said it will definitely take advantage of the holiday movie bonanza but $300 million is not guaranteed.

David Mumpower: What hurts The Hobbit more than anything else is holiday calendar configuration. Christmas Eve on Monday is the "quick" version of the holiday box office money train. Fellowship of the Ring was released with the same calendar configuration. It grossed $165 million during the period from December 21st to January 2nd. In other words, it earned $150 million from the rest of its box office run opposed to $165 million during the holiday period. The Two Towers garnered $170.4 million of its $342.5 million during its 12 days of box office. Return of the King almost doesn't compare because it had weekends at the start (December 19th) and end (January 2nd) of its calendar configuration. As such, it grossed $217 million if we include those weekdays. Without, the total is "only" $172.1 million. I mention this to demonstrate just how large the swing can be during the late December holiday period. The Hobbit has a more narrow window, lackluster word-of-mouth and some confusing exhibition options (consumers simply do not know what to make of 48 frames per second 3D). I had presumed this would be at a minimum a $350 million domestic earner. At this point, that is a dicey proposition.

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