Monday Morning Quarterback

By BOP Staff

March 12, 2013

The World Baseball Classic is all about the spirit of sportsmanship.

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Kim Hollis: It's about what I thought it would do, I guess. Actually, I'm lying a little bit when I say that. I really thought it had a chance to crash and burn. We've been seeing movie after movie fail to captivate audiences each week, and I didn't really think there was anything too compelling (other than the "Oz" name) to capture the attention of most moviegoers. I'm interested purely because of Sam Raimi, but if his name wasn't attached to the project as director I'd probably be shrugging my shoulders. Anyway, I think it's about the best result they could have hoped for and it sure could have been substantially worse.

David Mumpower: I would like to touch upon Reagen's comment before I reply to the original question. He makes an understanding point. The $80 million/$325 million aspect of Oz the Great and Powerful blurs the conversation a bit since the numbers are so large. Let's take a different approach and do basic math to reduce the terms by four. We would be discussing a $19.8 million opening against an $81 million financial outlay. At best, we would describe this situation as a wash. This situation exemplifies how much the lucrative overseas marketplace has changed the equation in recent years.

Oz the Great and Powerful is going to earn enough money to exit theaters in the black. If it mimics Alice in Wonderland's behavior, we would be projecting almost $700 million. Even if the Disney title falls $100 million short of that projection, Oz has earned enough to justify the investment. It has not provided the best return on investment, but that is a harsher criteria to evaluate movies. Also, there are enough Oz toys in play that maybe it becomes a bread winner via Disney's conventional methodology. All in all, I deem this a hit even if the number is a bit softer than some tracking data suggested.




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Kim Hollis: What do you think happens next for Oz as far as the long-term prospects of this film as well as plans to turn it into a franchise?

Jay Barney: I think it is a solid move, one that fits right in line with several long term visions for different characters and story lines. James Franco is a very smart casting move, as his star is only on the rise. His career already has projects in line for the coming years so he won't have to worry about work. Planet of the Apes....now this.

The Oz universe was almost made to be explored in multiple films, anyway, especially since there is the backdrop of the books. Disney could probably be a little more careful with the amount it spends on getting the product out to theaters, as the price tag on this one was pretty steep. Regardless, this film will be successful, and it will be interesting to see which direction they move to take the franchise.

I don't think they need to go in the direction of Lord of the Rings dark, but when I think of the Wicked Witch of the West, I remember how scary she was when I was younger. The best heroes are made when you stack them up against awesome villains, and she is one of the best of all time. This could be a very profitable, long term investment for Disney.


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