Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
March 26, 2013
Kim Hollis: This debut is right in line with what I was expecting. It will do fine domestically and pull in excellent numbers overseas (and in fact is already doing so). I actually think cavemen rather than dinosaurs/animals a la Ice Age is a tougher concept to sell. Since it's spring break around the country, I expect The Croods to benefit and play well for the next few weeks.
Max Braden: I think that's decent, for what it is. The look didn't blow me away - to me The Croods looks very similar visually, and storywise, to the Ice Age series. That series has opened pretty solidly in the $40-50 million range, so The Croods lines up with that well. I don't see it necessarily winning awards, but I don't see anyone really panning it either, which means it should have a nice steady run in theaters and again on video.
David Mumpower: I am of the opinion that this result was almost exactly what should have been expected. It's right in line with recent DreamWorks Animation movies released outside the holiday periods on the calendar perform like clockwork lately. We all have acknowledged that its domestic performance can be safely ranged. The x-factor is how well The Croods performs overseas. At the moment, we know that the movie will prove to be at least a draw with a chance at being a huge winner if it does tap into the insane popularity of Ice Age overseas. I strongly suspect the lack of Scrat makes the comparison overly optimistic, though.
Kim Hollis: Do you believe animation fatigue has become a factor with major studio releases? Why or why not?
Felix Quinonez: I honestly didn't even know that was a thing. I believe there will always be an audience for animation in some shape or another. I think if returns for animation releases have been unimpressive it has to do with the movies themselves, not because people are tired of animation.
Bruce Hall: I don't think there's any such thing. As long as there are children, and as long as there are parents who want those children to sit still and shut up, there will be a market for animated films. But for sake of argument, I will comment on a handful of 2012 features based on domestic box office only.
There's The Lorax, which appears to have made its production budget back the weekend it opened. Then there's Madagascar 3, which had a somewhat similar opening, and owns an almost identical lifetime domestic gross, yet cost twice as much to make as The Lorax. Then you've got films like Brave, an animated film that cost considerably more to make than Captain America, more or less in the same boat. ParaNorman fell short of its budget, and vanished as soon as it hit theaters (Zombie movie in August = bad timing. Was I right about that or what?). And then you've got Wreck-It Ralph, which everyone seems to love, but had a tepid opening...yet was ultimately profitable - although not nearly as much as The Lorax, which is tracking lower than Michael Bay's first Transformers movie at Rotten Tomatoes.
Quality is subjective of course, and I am sure someone somewhere has done a comprehensive analysis on the state of big budget animated features. But if we're just talking about about the domestic reception given animated features relative to their cost, my unscientific conclusion is that the North American public is plenty willing to pay for these films almost regardless of quality, but studios might want to start finding more economical ways to make them.
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