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Jason Barney: Yes...the growth on the international front will be the story here. Any growth in the American market would be nice, but again we are already talking about films that achieve remarkable numbers here in domestic theaters. It is silly to think that movies need to earn $400 million or more domestically for them to be successful. Sure, expectations are high, but come on.

I think the true growth will be the amount of money this film (and others, as BOP has discussed in the past) earns in the foreign markets. The Hunger Games' $283 million overseas take is going to be blown out of the water. I can't stress this enough, though. If Catching Fire approaches $400 million domestic and another $400 million overseas, I'd call that a good amount of growth.

Tim Briody: I think we've firmly established the wheelhouse for Mockingjay Part 1 next year, but I'd bump Part 2 a notch or so because that seems to be the way the finales work.

Max Braden: I think if Lionsgate wants to see the box office for Hunger Games sequels to grow, they're going to have to build more theaters and send out the truancy paddy wagons. They're saturated at this point. If they want to make more profit, they'll have to be more efficient with production costs. At least domestically, expanding the box office is going to be like squeezing something out of a stone.

David Mumpower: I have real concerns that the franchise at least somewhat follows the trajectory of Pirates of the Caribbean. If we look at that series as a model, it peaked with the second movie then fell 27% domestically with At World's End. By the time On Stranger Tides was released, its North American earnings were only 57% of Dead Man's Chest. As everyone else here has mentioned, international box office expansion allowed for a continued justification of sequels. Nobody will ever remember it that way but On Stranger Tides is the most popular Pirates of the Caribbean movie overseas, grossing a whopping $803 million. Contrast that to The Curse of the Black Pearl, which managed "only" $349 million internationally.

The Hunger Games is poised to behave similarly. The first movie earned $284 million overseas while Catching Fire will torch that (no pun intended) during its first month. Conversely, everyone here is correct that the $408 million The Hunger Games grossed in North America could be the high water mark for the quadrilogy. I expect Catching Fire to fall short of that mark, and I have serious concerns about the third movie. Like everyone else, I was surprised by the announcement that there would be two movies. I understand the financial motivation for such a ploy.

My worry stems from the fact that the third book was already a disappointment. In splitting it into a pair of movies, Catching Fire Part One becomes an oddity in the franchise. It will not contain any variation of the one thing that identifies the series, a Hunger Games-style competition. As such, I can see it being a divisive, potentially alienating movie that could leave casual viewers cold. Such a situation would negatively impact the box office of the conclusive offering, which ordinarily would be expected to be an overachiever as Tim noted. I believe that the glowing reception for Catching Fire (A Cinemascore, 89% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes) will extend the goodwill of the franchise into Mockingjay. That movie itself is where I worry everything could come undone. Prove me wrong, Lionsgate.

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